* Investors more cautious on chances of swift end to Iran war. * US economic data in focus after hawkish Fed remarks. * Yen support likely to hinge on intervention risks, US data. By Stefano Rebaudo.
* U.S. launches strikes on Iran military site. * Dollar rises to one-week high. * U.S. PCE data due at 1230 GMT. * Silver, platinum hit near one-month lows. By Pablo Sinha. Gold prices fell to a two-month low on Thursday as fresh U.S. attacks on Iran boosted the dollar and pushed oil prices higher, stoking concerns about rising inflation and clouding the interest rate outlook.
Euro zone bond yields rose on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes, threatening their ceasefire agreement and pushing oil prices up around 3%. Germany's 10-year bond yield rose 2 basis points to 3.005%. The two-year German bond yield, which is more sensitive to European Central Bank interest rate expectations, rose 4 bps to 2.617%. Yields move inversely to prices.
By Mike Dolan. If Donald Trump is indeed backing off and allowing the Federal Reserve to do what it needs to do, then the U.S. president may have to park his administration's long-assumed preference for a weaker dollar too.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday it was appropriate to focus on returning inflation to the central bank's 2% target given the U.S. labour market has been "very resilient" to the current energy shock.
* Bare-bones budget aims to preserve fiscal space as Iran war fans economic risks. * Budget projects achieving surplus sooner than expected in fiscal 2030. * Finance Minister Willis says budget aims to bolster economy for years ahead. * Government downgrades GDP forecast for 2027 fiscal year. * Budget boosts spending on defence, schools but flags deeper public service cuts.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on?Thursday amped up his warning that mounting expectations for the productivity-boosting potential of AI could send inflation higher and force the Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday amped up his warning that mounting expectations for the productivity-boosting potential of AI could send inflation higher and force the Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Wednesday said she feels the U.S. central bank should hold short-term interest rates steady for now but, with tariffs, the Iran war and a surge in AI-related investment pushing prices higher, she is prepared to hike rates if needed.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Thursday that energy inflation tied to the war in Iran has lasted longer than expected. Goolsbee also sounded a warning for Asian economies in the interview, saying that, because they are energy importers, "it's more just a stagflationary shock of the old-fashioned variety."
New Zealand on Thursday forecast a budget deficit of NZ$15.06 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30 2026, narrower than a deficit of NZ$16.93 billion projected in its half-year fiscal update in December. Net debt excluding advances was forecast to peak at 46.1% of gross domestic product in 2027/28.
The U.S. dollar was slightly higher on Thursday, after touching its strongest level since early April, as doubts grew over prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and focus shifted to possible U.S. interest rate hikes. Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeted a U.S. airbase on Thursday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a report he was close to a compromise deal with Tehran.
The U.S. dollar, long stuck in a tight trading range, could be in for a break higher as the Federal Reserve shifts its focus to fighting worrisome signs that inflation is heating up. In the first half of last year, the dollar slumped nearly 11%. Since then, it has settled into a narrow trading range, frustrating both those anticipating deeper losses and those hoping for a meaningful rebound.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Wednesday that the current setting of monetary policy is in the right place amid ongoing upside risks to the inflation outlook.
* Fed's Jefferson says monetary policy is well positioned. * Jefferson says while inflation expected to ease later this year, there are risks. * Jefferson says job market mostly stable. By Michael S. Derby. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Wednesday that the current setting of monetary policy is in the right place amid ongoing upside risks to the inflation outlook.
The Federal Reserve's in-house watchdog said on Wednesday it's looking into how the U.S. central bank's Board of Governors reappoints the regional Fed presidents and their deputies to respective five-year terms.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Wednesday said she feels the U.S. central bank should hold short-term interest rates steady for now but, with tariffs, the Iran war and a surge in AI-related investment pushing prices higher, she is prepared to hike rates if needed.
* Fed's Kashkari calls for focus on inflation risk. * Investors focusing on key US data due later this week. * BofA says gold rally could boost silver above $100 per ounce again. By Anjana Anil and Anmol Choubey.
* Mortgage applications fall 8.5%, refinancing drops, application volumes near yearly low. * Housing supply remains tight as homeowners with low rates stay put, worsening affordability. * Average 30-year mortgage rate hits 6.65%, highest since August 2025, MBA reports.
Food-related challenges are surging for America's least well-off residents, and that likely explains the marked rise in a sour consumer mood despite data showing the economy is overall doing pretty well, new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says.
* NY Fed finds marked rise in food insecurity for many Americans. * NY Fed says food concerns likely linked to bad consumer moods. * NY Fed says lower-income Americans' food challenges greatest. By Michael S. Derby.
U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday morning edged lower amid continued hopes that Washington and Tehran were moving toward an agreement after nearly three months of war. The U.S. Treasury is due to hold an auction of 5-year notes in the afternoon while investors await Thursday's releases of key economic data on inflation, durable goods and first-quarter economic growth.
* Fed's Kashkari calls for focus on inflation risk. * Investors focusing on key US data due later this week. * Spot silver down more than 3% By Anjana Anil and Anmol Choubey. Gold prices fell to nearly a two-month low on Wednesday, pressured by expectations of tighter monetary policy to fend off rising inflation, with no clear end in sight to the war in Iran.
A group of the world's leading central banks and more than 40 major commercial banks are to step up testing of one of the world's most closely watched digital payments projects, as the race to upgrade - and dominate - the international financial architecture heats up.
* Leading central banks push ahead with digital payments testing. * Bank of Canada due to join the project going forward. * China's central bank, commercial banks not involved in project. By Marc Jones.
The rate on the most popular U.S. residential real estate loan hit a nine-month high last week in another blow to home-ownership affordability, as the Iran war kept oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and pushing up benchmark U.S. Treasury yields.
The rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to a nine-month high last week, as the Iran war kept oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and pushing benchmark U.S. Treasury yields higher. The U.S. labor market has since stabilized, with the unemployment rate now at the same 4.3% it was last August.
Russia has passed a law allowing its central bank and other financial institutions to operate their own defence systems and arm staff to repel drone attacks, a document published by the lower house of parliament showed.
The U.S. dollar, long stuck in a tight trading range, could be in for a break higher as the Federal Reserve shifts its focus to fighting worrisome signs that inflation is heating up. In the first half of last year, the dollar slumped nearly 11%. Since then, it has settled into a narrow trading range, frustrating both those anticipating deeper losses and those hoping for a meaningful rebound.
Euro zone banks need to invest more in cybersecurity if they are to get a grip on new AI models that can find flaws in software, the European Central Bank's outgoing Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday.
The Hungarian forint
firmed on Wednesday after the country's central bank
left rates on hold and as investors looked ahead to a potential
deal on releasing European Union funds.
Euro zone banks need to invest more in cybersecurity if they are to get a grip on new AI models that can find flaws in software, the European Central Bank's outgoing Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday.
Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index to extend its rally in 2026, even as the months-long Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows and drives inflation higher. Strategists at major investment banks expect AI momentum and strong corporate earnings to offset the conflict's short-term economic impact.
The world may need to find a way to get by on less oil and gas if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on Wednesday. Iran has throttled shipping through the strait during the three-month conflict, forcing up energy, food and fertilizer prices.
The world may need to find a way to get by on less oil and gas if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer dueto the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on Wednesday. Iran has throttled shipping through the strait during the three-month conflict, forcing up energy, food and fertilizer prices.
London copper prices rose to a near two-week high on Wednesday, as lower oil prices eased fears of inflation and slowing economic growth, while aluminium steadied near its highest level in more than four years on supply concerns. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.3% at $13,660.50 a metric ton by 0701 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 15 earlier in the session.
Pressures on central bank independence are likely to grow as public dissatisfaction over supply-shock-driven inflation may tempt politicians to assign blame to central banks, former Federal Reserve executive Donald Kohn said on Wednesday.
By Stefano Rebaudo Euro zone government bond yields fell on Wednesday after rising the previous day, as investors continued to expect two European Central Bank rate hikes this year amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran tensions. Money markets are pricing the ECB deposit rate at 2.59% by December, up from the current 2% but down from the 2.75% level priced in last week.
* Public discontent may tempt politicians to blame central banks. * Pressure on central bank independence to grow. * Kohn calls for clear communication, less reliance on models. * Central banks must focus on creating economic narratives. By Leika Kihara.
Japanese government bond yields fell on Wednesday as the market awaited clearer signals for whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as early as June, while improved appetite for debt supported the super long end.
* U.S. inflation risks higher than risk of worsening job market. * Most of recent US data showing inflationary risks are higher. * Far too soon to predict timing of next Fed policy shift. * Iran war sent 'inflationary shockwave' globally that may persist. By Leika Kihara.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift. While markets appear to be looking past the Middle East crisis and the havoc it has wreaked on energy supplies, central bankers are signalling that the inflationary damage is already done. Share markets in Japan and South Korea surged to fresh records, riding AI optimism that sent U.S. benchmarks to all-time highs.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift. While markets appear to be looking past the Middle East crisis and the havoc it has wreaked on energy supplies, central bankers are signalling that the inflationary damage is already done. Share markets in Japan and South Korea surged to fresh records, riding AI optimism that sent U.S. benchmarks to all-time highs.
* Iran says US violated ceasefire agreement. * US Secretary of State says Iran deal could take a few days. * US PCE data due on Thursday. By Pablo Sinha. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors assessed ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials for monetary policy clues. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,502.25 per ounce, as of 0412 GMT.
London copper prices rose to a near two-week high on Wednesday, as lower oil prices eased fears of inflation and slowing economic growth, while aluminum hovered near its highest level in more than four years on supply concerns. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.5% at $13,688.50 a metric ton by 0334 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 15 earlier in the session.
* RBNZ holds rates at 2.25% in split decision; governor casts deciding vote. * RBNZ warns rates may go up sooner and by more than expected to counter energy shock. * Markets price in tighter policy path as inflation outlook worsens. * NZ dollar jumps, swaps up 5 basis points as traders brace for hikes ahead. By Stella Qiu and Lucy Craymer.
New Zealand's central bank held rates steady on Wednesday, but a split vote underscored a knife-edge decision, as policymakers warned rates will need to rise sooner and by more than expected to counter an energy shock rippling through the global economy.
Gold ticked up on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar, as investors looked for signs of progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran and assessed the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. FUNDAMENTALS. * Spot gold rose 0.2% at $4,516.76 per ounce, as of 0051 GMT. * The dollar eased, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.
* Central bankers signal inflation concerns. * Japan's Nikkei hits record after Wall Street gains on AI optimism. * New Zealand dollar subdued ahead of expected central bank rate hold. By Rocky Swift Asian shares rose while oil prices remained elevated on Wednesday as markets looked for signals that a shaky truce between the United States and Iran will be extended.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
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