Euro zone government bond yields rose on Wednesday, with traders now pricing in a more than 50% probability of three European Central Bank rate hikes by year-end as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled.
The U.S. dollar is expected to stay range-bound in the near term before weakening later this year, FX strategists said in a Reuters survey, on optimism the Middle East war will end soon and its impact on inflation will be temporary. Since the conflict began three months ago, the dollar has tracked risk sentiment - rising on escalation and slipping as tensions eased.
* UK services PMI falls to 49.3 in May from April's 52.7. * Drop is less than reported in initial flash data. * Firms raise prices at second-fastest rate since 2022. * BoE policymaker concerned at broad swathe of price increases. By Suban Abdulla and David Milliken.
The artificial-intelligence boom already has fueled a record stock-market surge. Meta Platforms, Oracle and other technology companies have raised $250 billion in debt markets globally this year, according to Morgan Stanley, borrowing at a scale that would have been hard to imagine only a few years ago.
The European Central Bank met commercial lenders last week to discuss the potential threat from the newest artificial intelligence models and will follow up with demands for practical defence measures, board member Frank Elderson said.
With the Iran war stretching into its fourth month, U.S. retail companies that have so far banked on a resilient consumer could face a tougher road ahead as rising gas prices and economic pain gradually erode the buffer.
Global economic growth may temporarily slow, Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Wednesday, citing increased uncertainty. Here are other details of what Schlegel mentioned at an event for the Swiss hospitality industry in Bern, according to the presentation slides.
* Japan more exposed to spillover effects of inflation. * BOJ will keep raising rates at 'appropriate pace', Ueda says. * Ueda signals rate-hike chance even if Iran uncertainty remains. * Delaying rate hike may inflict huge burden on economy. * Speech heightens chance of June rate hike, analysts say. By Leika Kihara.
* Sberbank raises 2026 commodity exports revenue forecast. * Sberbank forecasts 2026 GDP growth at between 0.5% and 1% * Sberbank expects central bank to accelerate rate cuts. By Gleb Bryanski and Elena Fabrichnaya.
* Euro zone composite PMI at 18-month low of 48.5 in May. * Price pressures worst in over three years. * Services reading edged up but remained in contractionary territory. * Data point to 0.2% quarterly GDP decline in second quarter - S&P Global.
* Global growth seen at 2.8% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027. * U.S. growth seen easing to 2.0% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027. * Global outlook weakens if war persists into 2027. By Leigh Thomas.
India's dominant services sector grew at its fastest pace in six months in May on a pick-up in domestic demand, even though global orders stayed below last year's average and business confidence slipped for a second straight month, a survey showed.
A peace deal between the US and Iran before next week's European Central Bank meeting would not derail the case for raising interest rates, Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch told the Financial Times in an interview published on Wednesday. "If a peace deal is confirmed just before the meeting, it will be part of the discussion.
China's services activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May, helped by stronger growth in new business and a rebound in overseas demand, though rising cost pressures weighed on firms, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday.
* New business and export demand drive fastest services growth in three months. * Service providers add jobs as outstanding business rises. * Input cost inflation hits highest since October 2024.
Japanese government bond yields rose across the curve on Wednesday, supported by firmer Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations and a global backdrop of elevated yields. Here are a few details: * The benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed 2 basis points to 2.585%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a closely watched speech on Wednesday that could reveal his thinking on the prospects of a June rate hike, as surging fuel costs from the Iran war broaden price pressures in an already fragile economy.
Japan's services sector ground to a halt in May after more than a year of expansion, as surging costs linked to the Middle East war dampened service demand and led to a 12-year high in output price inflation, a private survey showed on Tuesday. * The S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.0 in May from 51.0 in April, marking the end of a 13-month expansion streak.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh pledged to follow "the best of the Fed's traditions" in an opening note to the central bank's more than 20,000 employees as he starts his four-year term, while also promising a broad look at what might be done differently.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has tapped two conservative policy veterans, Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil, to advise him while he settles into the job, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
* US job openings surge to 7.618 million in April, exceeding forecasts. * Cleveland Fed's Hammack says inflation pressures may require action soon. * Oil prices choppy on report that Iran reviewing agreement. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
* US job openings surge to 7.618 million in April, exceeding forecasts. * Cleveland Fed's Hammack warns inflation pressures may require action soon. * Oil prices subdued on report Iran reviewing agreement. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
* Bank of Israel chief cites falling oil prices, stronger shekel as drivers of lower inflation. * Business leaders criticize high rates, say strong shekel harms economy. * Yaron says economy resilient post-conflict, main drag from labour supply constraints. By Steven Scheer.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack warned on Tuesday that even an imminent end to the Middle East war will result in extended disruptions to the economy.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates soon should already-high inflation pressures continue to mount.
* U.S. 10-year Treasury yields down more than 1% * Oil prices fall after Trump says talks with Iran are ongoing. * Lebanon announces partial ceasefire between Israel, Hezbollah. By Noel John. Gold rose 1% on Tuesday, buoyed by lower U.S. Treasury yields, while weaker oil prices eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates. Spot gold rose 1% to $4,528.67 per ounce by 1136 GMT.
Israel's short-term interest rates could fall at a faster pace if inflation continues to ease, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said on Tuesday. Yaron, speaking at an Israel Democracy Institute conference, noted that since the last interest rates decision on May 25, expectations of a ceasefire deal with Iran have increased, leading to lower energy prices and a stronger shekel versus the dollar.
* Investors monitor US-Iran talks, await key US economic data. * Federal Reserve policy outlook remains central to dollar direction. * Yen drifts toward 160 per dollar, heightening intervention risk. By Stefano Rebaudo.
* U.S. 10-year Treasury yields down more than 1% * Oil prices fall after Trump says talks with Iran are ongoing. * Lebanon announces partial ceasefire between Israel, Hezbollah. By Noel John. Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday, buoyed by lower U.S. Treasury yields, while weaker oil prices eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates.
* Investors monitor US-Iran talks, await key US economic data. * Federal Reserve policy outlook remains central to dollar direction. * Yen drifts toward 160 per dollar, heightening intervention risk. By Stefano Rebaudo and Satoshi Sugiyama.
The Iran energy story may be masking a bigger inflation worry. Everyone, not least the major central banks, is watching every twitch of crude prices around the Iran conflict for the cost-of-living hit. This whopping business investment outlay is expected to exceed $800 billion this year alone and run into the trillions over the years ahead.
* Lebanon announces partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. * Tehran halts negotiations with US, Iranian state media says. * U.S. May employment data due later this week. By Pablo Sinha.
The Bank of Japan should lay out a clear path for policy normalisation after a widely expected rate hike this month to stabilise the bond market, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's (SMFG) global markets chief, Arihiro Nagata, told Reuters.
* Lebanon announces partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. * Tehran halts negotiations with US, Iranian state media says. * U.S. May employment data due later this week. By Pablo Sinha.
* Surging stock markets boost U.S. luxury spending. * Luxury groups report stronger sales growth in U.S. than elsewhere. * Brands stage fashion shows in New York and Los Angeles. * North America leads the world in luxury store openings. By Elisa Anzolin and Helen Reid.
The Bank of Japan should lay out a clear path for policy normalisation after a widely expected rate hike this month to stabilise the bond market, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's (SMFG) global markets chief, Arihiro Nagata, told Reuters.
Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it planned to withdraw its ratings on Fonterra Co-operative Group, days after the dairy producer announced it would cease its engagement with the credit rating agency. On May 22, the New Zealand-based company said it would end its relationship with the external credit rating agency to reflect its continued focus on operating as a simpler business.
* Iran and US carry out strikes. * Series of US jobs data due this week. * Palladium is moving towards balance, Morgan Stanley says. By Ashitha Shivaprasad. Gold prices fell on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that central banks may keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
* Manufacturing PMI increases 1.3 points to 54.0 in May. * Supplier delivery performance slows for sixth consecutive month. * Iran war dominates comments from manufacturers, with many complaining about negative impact on supply chains. By Lucia Mutikani.
The Bank of Canada on Monday cautioned against putting too much weight on recent GDP data which showed two consecutive quarters of decline on an annualized basis. Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said while two quarters of annualized contraction in GDP did meet one definition of a recession, the April advance estimate showed the economy most likely rebounded.
* Iran halts US talks, oil prices surge, market reacts to geopolitical tensions. * US Treasury yields jump, 10-year note posts biggest rise in two weeks. * Fed rate hike expectations increase as high oil prices persist, Strait of Hormuz remains closed. By Chuck Mikolajczak.
Private sector analysts
polled by Mexico's central bank slightly raised nearly all
forecasts for inflation this year and next, while trimming their
economic growth estimates, the bank said on ...
U.S. construction spending increased more than expected in April, boosted by single-family homebuilding, though rising mortgage rates amid the war with Iran continued to cast a shadow over the housing market. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending rose 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in March.
U.S. construction spending increased more than expected in April, boosted by single-family homebuilding, though rising mortgage rates amid the war with Iran continued to cast a shadow over the housing market. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending rose 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in March.
U.S. manufacturing activity increased more than expected in May, hitting the highest level in four years, likely driven by businesses front-loading orders amid rising prices and shortages because of the war with Iran.
U.S. manufacturing activity increased more than expected in May, hitting the highest level in four years, likely driven by businesses front-loading orders amid rising prices and shortages because of the war with Iran. Manufacturing has now grown for five straight months, anchored mostly by an artificial intelligence spending spree.
Canada's manufacturing sector expanded for a second straight month in May as the potential for higher prices and product shortages due to the war in the Middle East likely boosted client demand, data showed on Monday. The ?S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index edged down to 52.9 last month from 53.3 in April.
* Iran and US carry out strikes. * Series of US jobs data due this week. * Palladium is moving towards balance - Morgan Stanley. By Ashitha Shivaprasad. Gold prices slipped on Monday as fresh strikes between Iran and the United States heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that central banks may keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
China's central bank is making a broad push to increase the use of digital yuan at home and abroad, several industry sources said, setting Beijing on a different - and potentially competing - path from the United States in shaping the future of money.
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