As expected, higher oil prices lifted Canadian inflation in April, but TD Economics isn't yet seeing much of a knock-on effect to non-energy-related goods or services, noting core inflation pressures were actually softer than expected in April. There is little argument yet for Bank of Canada rate hikes here, and market pricing for rate hikes this year has come down a bit early Tuesday, TD noted.
Canadian headline consumer price index accelerated in April as gasoline prices surged, but the jump wasn't as high as expected and core measures of inflation remained muted, supporting the current wait-and-see stance of the Bank of Canada, said CIBC. The 0.4% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted increase was three ticks below the consensus forecast, noted the bank after Tuesday's data.
The Canadian consumer price index increased 2.8% year over year in April on rising energy prices, up from an increase of 2.4% in March, said the country's statistical agency on Tuesday. But April's CPI was lower than a 3.1% year over year consensus figure provided by MUFG.
Brazil's central bank monetary policy director Nilton David said on Tuesday the bank is troubled by inflation expectations drifting further from its 3% target - particularly for 2028, a horizon expected to be less sensitive to current shocks.
Canadian housing starts climbed by 16.5% month over month in April to a four-month high of 279,300 annualized units and beat expectations of a 245,000 print following an upwardly revised 239,700 reading in March from 235,900 initially, said Rosenberg Research.
ROSELAND, N.J., May 19, 2026 ?For the four weeks ending May 2, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report. Hiring strengthened for the second week in a row. The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will avoid cutting interest rates this year, according to most economists polled by Reuters who largely pushed long-held calls for reductions into next year on hopes the current inflation flare-up is temporary.
The Canadian consumer price index for April is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said Scotiabank. The bank has estimated a 1% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted rise, with consensus at 0.7% and with a range from 0.6-1.0%, but the consensus is somewhat "thin." There is a reasonable range from 0.5-1.0%, it added.
Canada's consumer price index on Tuesday is a potential "marker mover" for Canadian government bonds and USD/CAD, said Societe Generale. Canada is slated to release CPI for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. The pair stalled at the 50dma, the 200dma above is situated at 1.3812 if risk sentiment "sours," writes the bank in a note to clients.
* Investors focus on potential increases to U.S. interest rates. * Oil prices fall after Trump remarks lift peace hopes. * Yen returns to intervention zone close to 160. By Stefano Rebaudo.
Canada will publish the consumer price index for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said Bank of Montreal. Energy prices continued to climb in April, building on the prior month's surge, amid ongoing transportation disruptions due to the war in Iran, noted the bank.
Euro zone bonds steadied on Tuesday, with yields just shy of multi-year highs hit the previous day when investors braced for a sustained period of high energy prices that could spill over into broader inflation and cause central bank rate hikes. That sent Brent crude down 1.8% to $110 a barrel, and also supported bonds.
Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's suggestion that independence may not extend fully to the Fed's crisis-fighting role abroad has unsettled central banking peers, who fear any reduction in its global footprint could risk market stability.
Tuesday's release of Canada's April consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET should show a sharp rise in headline inflation, driven by food and gasoline prices, said ING. The consensus is looking for a 3.1% year-over-year print, while core measures should remain anchored around 2.2%-2.3% year over year, noted the bank.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will host a meeting of G20 trade ministers in Wisconsin from September 30 to October 1, his office said, with talks to focus on forced labor, updating the Most-Favored Nation principle and global overcapacity. President Donald Trump is scheduled to host the G20 leaders' summit in Miami on December 14-15 at Trump National Doral.
It looks like the bond market is betting a Federal Reserve rate increase could be on the way -- but Fed members and economists mostly don't seem to think so.
* Trump says "good chance" of nuclear deal with Iran. * Traders see 38% chance of a US interest rate hike this year. * Minutes of Fed's April policy meeting due on Wednesday. By Noel John. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, hovering near a one-and-a-half-month low hit in the previous session, pressured by inflation fears and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.
* Investors focus on chances of Fed rate hikes. * Oil drops after Trump remarks lift peace hopes. * Yen returns to intervention zone close to 160. By Stefano Rebaudo. The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday as investors balanced cautious hopes for a Middle East peace deal against concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise rates to curb energy-driven inflation.
Incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh faces both a tough environment and a "difficult boss," Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said on Tuesday, pointing to political pressure on Warsh to cut rates even as inflation remains high.
Incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh faces both a tough environment and a "difficult boss," Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said on Tuesday, pointing to political pressure on Warsh to cut rates even as inflation remains high.
Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures.
Euro zone bonds steadied on Tuesday, with yields just shy of multi-year highs hit the previous day when investors braced for a sustained period of high energy prices that could spill over into broader inflation and cause central bank rate hikes.
Investors may now be discovering what long-term government borrowing costs are really like when you remove the potential backstop of central bank intervention from the bond market. The main driver of surging U.S. long-bond borrowing rates this year is clear enough: the Iran war, the related oil shock, racing inflation and the inevitable speculation about interest-rate rises.
Japanese government bond prices slipped on Tuesday, erasing early gains, as investors awaited details of the government's planned extra budget and the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision.
China is expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th consecutive month in May, a Reuters survey showed, as ample interbank cash supplies reduced the need to cut rates despite weak economic and lending activities.
* Q1 real GDP grows annualised 2.1% vs forecast +1.7% * Consumption and capex both rise 0.3%, GDP data shows. * Net external demand adds 0.3 point to growth. * Analysts expect slowdown ahead as Iran war impact intensifies. By Leika Kihara.
The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as investors focused on a possible hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve to curb energy-driven inflation, while uncertainty over a potential peace deal in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday there was now a "very good chance" of reaching a deal limiting Iran's nuclear programme.
Japan's economy grew an annualised 2.1% in the first quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, compared with the median market forecast for a 1.7% gain. The growth in gross domestic product translated into a quarterly increase of 0.5%, which compared with the median estimate for a 0.4% rise.
Australia's central bank is worried higher energy costs will feed through to consumer prices quickly given the stretched state of the domestic economy, potentially creating a significant shift in inflation expectations.
* Oil prices rise, reversing earlier dip. * Fed policy expectations shift as investors assess Chair Kevin Warsh's response to inflation. * Japanese yen weakens as government considers new debt. By Karen Brettell.
Veterans from the U.S. Federal Reserve's past crisis-fighting efforts on Monday said incoming Chair Kevin Warsh should focus less on the central bank's balance-sheet size and more on guidelines for how to use it in response to future financial and economic shocks.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as U.S. Federal Reserve chief on Friday by President Donald Trump, a White House official said on Monday, capping off the process of installing the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm of the central bank as it grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts Trump so deeply desires.
* Kevin Warsh takes over Fed as war-and-tariff-induced inflation heats up. * Powell to remain on Fed board until criminal probe concludes. * Warsh's first policy meeting set for mid-June. * Need guidance from Warsh on inflation, Goolsbee says.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as U.S. Federal Reserve chief on Friday by President Donald Trump, a White House official said on Monday, putting the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm of the central bank as it grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts Trump desires.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday in a White House ceremony hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, Fox Business reported on Monday, citing a White House official.
* GDP fell 0.5% year-on-year, missing forecasts and led. * Chile's Q1 contraction is steepest since late 2022. * Copper output hit by lower ore grades, adverse weather, and maintenance disruptions. By Aida Pelaez-Fernandez and Natalia A. Ramos Miranda.
U.S. home builder sentiment unexpectedly improved in May, but construction firm attitudes about the housing market remain subdued as the war in Iran stokes inflation pressures that are elevating everything from building material prices to buyers' mortgage rates.
By Jamie McGeever. Accelerating inflation in the U.S. and beyond is leaving the Federal Reserve and other central banks with an acute problem - negative real interest rates. Unexpectedly strong U.S. inflation data last week pushed the real, inflation-adjusted fed funds rate below zero for the first time in three years.
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Chile's economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter from the previous three-month period, central bank data showed on Monday, while economists in a Reuters poll had predicted a 0.2% decrease. On an annual basis, gross domestic product declined 0.5% in the period, missing expectations of 0.1% growth.
Brazil's economic activity grew 1.3% in the first quarter from the previous three months, central bank data showed on Monday, despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in March. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.7% in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a 0.2% drop expected in a Reuters poll.
The world's major economies have seen their debt levels surge in recent years, while ever-increasing spending demands - from ageing populations to climate change and defence - add to the pressure. With no end in sight to the conflict, the pressure is building as traders bet on central bank rate hikes and long-term borrowing costs march higher.
Economic activity in Brazil fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in March from the previous month, according to a central bank index on Monday, a steeper drop than the 0.2% contraction expected by economists polled by Reuters. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, expanded by 1.3% in the first quarter.
The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a gain versus the yen, with the focus this week on minutes of the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be released on Wednesday.
Euro zone bond yields rose on Monday amid a broader global bond selloff, with investors worried that higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict could fuel inflation and prompt further interest rate hikes.
* Central bank seeks 30% offtake in dore form for improved traceability, official. * Miners concerned over proposed discount, citing unclear terms. * GoldBod designated gatekeeper for gold exports under revamped programme. By Maxwell Akalaare Adombila.
After eight years of friction with the White House, a global pandemic, and a fight with high inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve begins a new era with former governor Kevin Warsh soon to be sworn in as chair. It will be a new era for President Donald Trump as well. In 2016, Powell was only a few months into his first term when Trump began berating him, annoyed at the Fed's interest-rate hikes.
* Warsh inherits high inflation, above Fed's 2% target, with pressure to address price stability. * Unemployment remains low at 4.3%, but debate continues over labor market strength and risks. * Warsh expected to consider shrinking Fed balance sheet, facing complex policy and market challenges. By Howard Schneider.
Syria will take part in a closed-door session with G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Paris on Monday, a person familiar with the matter said, in a sign of its growing status less than two years after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
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