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Tuesday's Canadian CPI Is A Potential "Market Mover", Says SocGen

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 07:46 AM EDT

07:46 AM EDT, 05/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's consumer price index on Tuesday is a potential "marker mover" for Canadian government bonds (CANGB) and USD/CAD, said Societe Generale.

Canada is slated to release CPI for April at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

The pair stalled at the 50dma (1.3740 area), the 200dma above is situated at 1.3812 if risk sentiment "sours," writes the bank in a note to clients.

Consensus is for a rise in headline CPI to 3.1% year over year in April from 2.4% in March and no change in core at 2.2% year over year, stated SocGen.

The OIS curve is pricing in nearly two hikes by the Bank of Canada by October, in line with the broader G10. This would restore the policy rate to 2.75%, the midpoint of the neutral range of the BoC, added SocGen.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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