Scotiabank's Round-Up of Market Pricing for Main Central Banks

10:21 AM EDT, 03/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Scotiabank provided market pricing across several central banks just before President Donald Trump's latest post claiming the United States and Iran had held talks and were moving toward de-escalation.

-- Federal Reserve: OIS markets are leaning toward a mostly priced 25bps hike by year-end.

-- Bank of Canada: Markets have about 100bps of hikes priced by year-end. This includes a one-in-four chance at a hike in April and a mostly priced June hike.

European Central Bank: A 25bps hike in April is fully priced, followed by another fully priced hike in June and then a path toward nearly a cumulative 100bps of hikes by year-end.

Bank of England: A 25bps hike in April is mostly priced and so is another in June on the path toward nearly 100bps of hikes by year-end.

Bank of Japan: Markets are on the fence between an April and June hike toward 50bps by year-end.

Reserve Bank of Australia: 75bps-100bps of hikes are priced by year-end, including two-thirds pricing of an April hike.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Almost 100bps of hikes are priced by year-end, starting as soon as May, which is a clear affront to the central bank's stale guidance.

Reserve Bank of Idia: A hike is priced for the April 8 meeting with about 75bps of hikes within one year.

Banxico: Markets would be surprised to see a cut this week at Mexico's central bank, with nothing priced until 25bps+ by fall along a continued tightening path into 2027.

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