By Mike Dolan. Investors may now be discovering what long-term government borrowing costs are really like when you remove the potential backstop of central bank intervention from the bond market. The main driver of surging U.S. long-bond borrowing rates this year is clear enough: the Iran war, the related oil shock, racing inflation and the inevitable speculation about interest-rate rises.
Japanese government bond prices slipped on Tuesday, erasing early gains, as investors awaited details of the government's planned extra budget and the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision.
The latest sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries may be far from over. A combination of stubborn inflation, shifting expectations about interest rates, and changes in investor behavior could keep pressure on bond prices and drive yields even higher in the weeks ahead, analysts said.
China is expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th consecutive month in May, a Reuters survey showed, as ample interbank cash supplies reduced the need to cut rates despite weak economic and lending activities.
* Q1 real GDP grows annualised 2.1% vs forecast +1.7% * Consumption and capex both rise 0.3%, GDP data shows. * Net external demand adds 0.3 point to growth. * Analysts expect slowdown ahead as Iran war impact intensifies. By Leika Kihara.
Japan's economy grew an annualised 2.1% in the first quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, compared with the median market forecast for a 1.7% gain. The growth in gross domestic product translated into a quarterly increase of 0.5%, which compared with the median estimate for a 0.4% rise.
Australia's central bank is worried higher energy costs will feed through to consumer prices quickly given the stretched state of the domestic economy, potentially creating a significant shift in inflation expectations.
Japan stands ready to act against excessive foreign exchange volatility at any time, while ensuring that any yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention is conducted in a way that avoids pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, officials said on Monday.
* S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower. * Oil prices gain as Iran worries continue. * Longer-dated US Treasury yields off recent highs. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Samuel Indyk. Major stock indexes mostly eased as technology shares fell on Monday, while Brent oil prices climbed to a two-week high as investors assessed whether there will likely be progress soon to end the Iran war.
* S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower. * Oil prices gain as Iran worries continue. * Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields off recent highs. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Samuel Indyk. Major stock indexes mostly eased as technology shares fell on Monday, while oil prices climbed following continued worries over supply disruption from the Iran war.
* Indexes mixed with Nasdaq leading declines, Dow holding steady. * Dominion Energy (D) rises on NextEra deal. * Regeneron slides after skin cancer drug combo misses trial goal. By Sin?ad Carew and Ragini Mathur.
* Yield on 10-, 30-year Treasuries retreat from overnight highs. * Earlier sharp sell-off followed a rise in crude oil prices. * Market bets on Fed interest rate hike increase. By Matt Tracy.
* Oil prices rise, reversing earlier dip. * Fed policy expectations shift as investors assess Chair Kevin Warsh's response to inflation. * Japanese yen weakens as government considers new debt. By Karen Brettell.
Veterans from the U.S. Federal Reserve's past crisis-fighting efforts on Monday said incoming Chair Kevin Warsh should focus less on the central bank's balance-sheet size and more on guidelines for how to use it in response to future financial and economic shocks.
* Indexes off: Dow 0.01%, S&P 500 off 0.43%, Nasdaq down 0.89% * Dominion Energy (D) rises on NextEra deal. * Regeneron slides after skin cancer drug combo misses trial goal. By Sin?ad Carew and Ragini Mathur.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as U.S. Federal Reserve chief on Friday by President Donald Trump, a White House official said on Monday, capping off the process of installing the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm of the central bank as it grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts Trump so deeply desires.
* U.S. stock indexes mostly down slightly. * Oil prices gain as Iran worries continue. * Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields off recent highs. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Samuel Indyk. Major stock indexes mostly eased as technology shares fell on Monday, while oil prices climbed following more worries over supply disruption from the Iran war.
* Oil prices turn positive. * Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at highest since February 2025. * JPMorgan cuts 2026 gold price view. By Anjana Anil. Gold steadied on Monday as support from a weaker U.S. dollar offset pressure from higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices. Spot gold was largely unchanged at $4,540.49 per ounce as of 12:35 p.m. ET.
* Kevin Warsh takes over Fed as war-and-tariff-induced inflation heats up. * Powell to remain on Fed board until criminal probe concludes. * Warsh's first policy meeting set for mid-June. * Need guidance from Warsh on inflation, Goolsbee says.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as U.S. Federal Reserve chief on Friday by President Donald Trump, a White House official said on Monday, putting the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm of the central bank as it grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts Trump desires.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday in a White House ceremony hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, Fox Business reported on Monday, citing a White House official.
* Indexes down: Dow 0.09%, S&P 500 0.4%, Nasdaq 0.8% * Dominion Energy (D) rises on NextEra deal. * Regeneron slides after skin cancer drug combo misses trial goal. By Ragini Mathur and Utkarsh Hathi.
* GDP fell 0.5% year-on-year, missing forecasts and led. * Chile's Q1 contraction is steepest since late 2022. * Copper output hit by lower ore grades, adverse weather, and maintenance disruptions. By Aida Pelaez-Fernandez and Natalia A. Ramos Miranda.
* Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at highest since February 2025. * JPMorgan cuts 2026 gold price view. By Anjana Anil. Gold steadied on Monday as support from a weaker U.S. dollar offset pressure from higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices. Spot gold was largely unchanged at $4,536.19 per ounce as of 11:10 a.m. ET.
* Indexes: Dow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.04%, Nasdaq off 0.1% * Dominion Energy (D) rises on NextEra deal. * Regeneron slides after skin cancer drug combo misses trial goal. By Ragini Mathur and Utkarsh Hathi. U.S. stock indexes were mixed in choppy trading on Monday even though the bond-market selloff that had pressured equities last week showed signs of cooling and oil prices pulled back.
U.S. home builder sentiment unexpectedly improved in May, but construction firm attitudes about the housing market remain subdued as the war in Iran stokes inflation pressures that are elevating everything from building material prices to buyers' mortgage rates.
* Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at highest since Feb 2025. * JPMorgan cuts 2026 gold price view. By Anjana Anil. Gold rose on Monday as a weaker U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices eased some inflation concerns though higher bond yields curbed bullion's gains while investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East conflict.
Yields on longer-dated Treasury notes climbed to their highest levels in over a year in overnight trading amid a global market selloff in longer-dated bonds driven by war-related inflation concerns. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.631% in overnight trading, its highest level since February 2025.
By Jamie McGeever. Accelerating inflation in the U.S. and beyond is leaving the Federal Reserve and other central banks with an acute problem - negative real interest rates. Unexpectedly strong U.S. inflation data last week pushed the real, inflation-adjusted fed funds rate below zero for the first time in three years.
Chile's economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter from the previous three-month period, central bank data showed on Monday, while economists in a Reuters poll had predicted a 0.2% decrease. On an annual basis, gross domestic product declined 0.5% in the period, missing expectations of 0.1% growth.
Brazil's economic activity grew 1.3% in the first quarter from the previous three months, central bank data showed on Monday, despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in March. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.7% in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a 0.2% drop expected in a Reuters poll.
The world's major economies have seen their debt levels surge in recent years, while ever-increasing spending demands - from ageing populations to climate change and defence - add to the pressure. With no end in sight to the conflict, the pressure is building as traders bet on central bank rate hikes and long-term borrowing costs march higher.
Economic activity in Brazil fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in March from the previous month, according to a central bank index on Monday, a steeper drop than the 0.2% contraction expected by economists polled by Reuters. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, expanded by 1.3% in the first quarter.
* Futures down: Dow 0.7%, S&P 500 0.4%, Nasdaq 0.4% * Dominon Energy rises on report of NextEra talks. * UnitedHealth (UNH) slips after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) sells stake. By Ragini Mathur and Utkarsh Hathi. U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Monday as rising Treasury yields and oil prices weighed, while investors awaited key earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and Walmart (WMT) later in the week.
Euro zone bond yields rose on Monday amid a broader global bond selloff, with investors worried that higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict could fuel inflation and prompt further interest rate hikes.
* Central bank seeks 30% offtake in dore form for improved traceability, official. * Miners concerned over proposed discount, citing unclear terms. * GoldBod designated gatekeeper for gold exports under revamped programme. By Maxwell Akalaare Adombila.
The Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as investors took some profits in technology stocks while surging Treasury yields and high oil prices fueled concerns that inflation and borrowing costs could stay elevated.
* Futures down: Dow 0.6%, S&P 500 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.09% U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Monday as rising Treasury yields and oil prices weighed on equity markets, while investors awaited key earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and Walmart (WMT) later in the week.
After eight years of friction with the White House, a global pandemic, and a fight with high inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve begins a new era with former governor Kevin Warsh soon to be sworn in as chair. It will be a new era for President Donald Trump as well. In 2016, Powell was only a few months into his first term when Trump began berating him, annoyed at the Fed's interest-rate hikes.
* Warsh inherits high inflation, above Fed's 2% target, with pressure to address price stability. * Unemployment remains low at 4.3%, but debate continues over labor market strength and risks. * Warsh expected to consider shrinking Fed balance sheet, facing complex policy and market challenges. By Howard Schneider.
* US 10-year Treasury yields rise to their highest since February 2025. * Brent rises above $110/bbl on fresh Middle East tensions. * Traders see 40% chance of a US interest rate hike in December. By Noel John.
Syria will take part in a closed-door session with G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Paris on Monday, a person familiar with the matter said, in a sign of its growing status less than two years after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad.
U.S. President Donald Trump conceded in an interview with Fortune magazine published on Monday that he may have to wait until the war with Iran was over for more interest rate cuts. "You can't really look at the figures until the war is over," he said.
* Finance ministers and central bankers discuss inflation, volatility. * France puts deep-seated global economic imbalances on the agenda. * Lescure says G7 offers opportunity for frank dialogue. * Meeting follows US-China summit that yielded few economic breakthroughs. By Makiko Yamazaki, Maria Martinez and Alistair Smout.
Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni has signed into law a contentious measure that he says aims to curb foreign influence in the country despite heavy criticism from quarters such as the central bank, warning it could trigger "economic disaster".
* U.S. Treasury yields hit one-year peaks; JGB yields scale record highs. * Renewed tensions in Middle East keep investors worried about inflation, growth risks. * Japan likely to issue fresh debt to deal with impact from Iran war. * Investors ramp up bets on global rate hikes. * British gilts outperform on Monday after selloff last week. By Matt Tracy, Alun John and Amanda Cooper.
* Companies face higher costs, supply disruptions, and operational changes. * Airlines, automakers, and other companies warn of profit hits. * Extra costs not yet showing up in earnings, analysts say. * Europe and Asia most affected by oil-price surge. By Medha Singh, Deborah Mary Sophia and Bernadette Hogg.
* IEA warns oil inventories depleting rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz closure. * Talks to end U.S.-Iran war stall despite Pakistani mediation, truce remains fragile. * Capital Economics warns prolonged closure could trigger global GDP downgrades and higher inflation. By Scott DiSavino.
* Tier-one cities see price rise, smaller cities and developers struggle. * Government incentives, state-backed purchases aim to stabilise market. By Liangping Gao, Yukun Zhang and Ryan Woo.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
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