UBS said it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver a 50bps cut at Wednesday's policy meeting after a significantly weaker-than-expected gross domestic prodcut print, more balanced inflation risks and only tentative signs of a recovery into 2026.
The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Friday - up versus the yen and Canadian dollar, down versus the euro and pound -- as the US government shutdown extends into its third day. The Senate is expected to vote again Friday afternoon to end the shutdown, but that comes too late for the September nonfarm payrolls employment data, which will be postponed.
USD/CAD has come off its 1.36 lows lately, noted UBS. While much of the support was driven by the US dollar, the Canadian dollar also played a role, wrote the bank in a note to clients. Signs of weakness are now clearly visible in the Canadian economy, said UBS. As a consequence, the September Labour Force Survey data due next week bear watching, stated the bank.
There have been only modest foreign exchange moves so far on Friday, but amongst these modest moves, the yen is the underperformer, said MUFG. The slightly weaker yen is down to the comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. However, a strong signal from Ueda on Friday was never a likely prospect ahead of the LDP leadership election on Saturday, stated MUFG.
"While the shutdown will eventually be resolved, present circumstances may catalyze tactical investment opportunities as a way to capture even more compelling yield and income opportunities," said Jeff Lipton, municipal market intelligence analyst for The Bond Buyer.
Four cities were ordered to halt recent tax hikes pending an investigation of whether they complied with a state law that enforces a deadline for annual audits.
Financial stocks were lower in late Thursday trading, with the NYSE Financial Index shedding 0.3% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund easing 0.1%. The Philadelphia Housing Index advanced 0.1%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund fell 0.5%. Bitcoin gained 1.9% to $120,925, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries declined 2 basis points to 4.09%. In economic news, US employers annou...
Over at Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo noted today's address by Deputy Governor, Rhys Mendes, to the Ivey Business School in London, Ontario, was centered around how the Bank of Canada will assess underlying inflation going forward.
Financial stocks were mixed in late Thursday afternoon trading with the NYSE Financial Index shedding 0.3% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund rising 0.1%. The Philadelphia Housing Index advanced 0.2%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund fell 0.7%. Bitcoin gained 1.9% to $120,925, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries declined 2 basis points to 4.09%. In corporate news, Morgan S...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is not certain whether tariff-driven inflation will prove temporary or persistent, telling Fox Business that recent price data are moving in the wrong direction.
US job cuts fell in September and the third quarter sequentially, Challenger Gray & Christmas said Thursday, while an ongoing federal government shutdown could delay the release of the official jobs report for last month. US-based employers announced 54,064 job cuts last month, down 37% month on month and 26% annually, the global outplacement firm said.
Financial stocks were decreasing in Thursday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index shedding 0.6% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund down 0.4%. The Philadelphia Housing Index was fractionally higher, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund was decreasing 0.6%. Bitcoin was increasing 0.9% to $119,743, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was declining 2 basis points to 4....
Financial stocks were decreasing in Thursday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index shedding 0.6% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund down 0.4%. The Philadelphia Housing Index was fractionally higher, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund was decreasing 0.6%. Bitcoin was increasing 0.9% to $119,743, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was declining 2 basis points to 4....
National Bank of Canada on Wednesday maintained a sector-perform rating and C$4,500 price target on the shares of Constellation Software (CNSWF) after the company hosted a conference call and Q&A to discuss the transition in management from Founder Mark Leonard to new President Mark Miller.
While the eurozone jobless rate edged up from the series low on Thursday, longer-dated German Bunds made modest gains, said Capital Markets. September's final services and composite PMIs, due on Friday, are expected to reaffirm the modest uptick in eurozone economic activity at the end of Q3 signalled by the preliminary estimates, noted the bank.
European stock markets closed mostly higher in Thursday trading as The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.59%, Germany's DAX gained 1.35%, the FTSE 100 was off 0.2%, France's CAC increased 1.13%, and the Swiss Market Index advanced 0.54%. The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in August from 6.2% in July, and was unchanged from a year earlier, while European Union unemployment wa...
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey?, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.34%. ?The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased again this week but remains below its 52-week average of 6.71%,? said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac?s Chief Economist.
With pension fund hedging largely in the rearview mirror, interest rate differentials are likely to become a more dominant driver of foreign exchange movements, said Desjardins. Uncertainty remains around which central bank -- the Bank of Canada or the Federal Reserve -- will ultimately ease more relative to current market pricing, stated Desjardins.
National Bank of Canada maintained its Outperform rating and $4.25 price target for Foran Mining (FMCXF) after a site tour of the McIlvenna Bay project in Saskatchewan. The site was significantly further advanced since the bank's last visit in October 2023, with construction 56% complete and progressing 6-8% per month.
Political dysfunction is far and away the leading economic and policy concern for muni market participants, according to a new Bond Buyer infrastructure survey.
Bank of Tanzania Thursday said its Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave the central bank rate at 5.75%. Inflation in mainland Tanzania was 3.4% year over year in August, "well" within the target range of 3%-5%, while in Zanzibar it declined to 4.0% year over year from 4.2%, which was also within the target, noted BoT in its policy statement.
ING said it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25bps to 2.75% next Wednesday, in line with consensus and pricing. Markets are betting on two more cuts after October, which looks a bit premature, having not yet seen Q3 consumer price index data, wrote the bank in a note.
While the cost of caring for older people can pressure municipal issuers, in states like Florida wealthy seniors can also contribute to economic vibrancy.
The yen weakened modestly at the start of Thursday's European trading session following a closely watched speech from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, said MUFG. The Japanese rate market has moved recently to price in a much higher probability of the BoJ resuming rate hikes at the end of this month, wrote the bank in a note to clients.
Wall Street futures pointed again to new highs, as investors crowded back into tech shares and bet on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Following the sagging ADP national employment report on Wednesday, the CME FedWatch tool estimates a 98.9% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the central bank's late October policy session.
Eurozone inflation accelerated on Wednesday, with the headline consumer price index hitting 2.2% year over year while core stayed at 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month, said ING. The figures were fully in line with market expectations and largely driven by energy prices, wrote the bank in a note.
California Water Service (CWT) said late Wednesday it sold $170 million worth of senior unsecured notes and, through a subsidiary, $200 million of first mortgage bonds in private placement deals. The notes consist of $70 million of series A 4.87% notes due 2032 and $100 million of series B 5.22% notes due 2035, while the bonds consist of $200 million of 5.64% bonds maturing 2055, the company said.
Shutdowns that delay data and weaken fiscal visibility often encourage central banks to act more cautiously, while rising yields in Japan hint at policy shifts that could ripple through global funding markets.
California Water Service Group (CWT) today announced today the sale of $170,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of Senior Unsecured Notes by Group and $200,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of First Mortgage Bonds by California Water Service Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of Group, in private placement transactions.
Summit Utilities Oklahoma used reserve funds to help cover an Oct. 1 payment on taxable bonds sold in 2022 through the Oklahoma Development Finance Authority.
Two surveys released Wednesday presented mixed trends in the US manufacturing sector for September, with Institute for Supply Management data showing continued contraction and an S&P Global (SPGI) report indicating growth losing steam amid tariffs-related concerns. The ISM purchasing managers' index edged up to 49.1 last month from 48.7 in August, but marked a seven straight month of contraction.
There were several developments since the July Monetary Policy Report that pushed the Bank of Canada to resume an interest rate easing cycle in September, even as there were some arguments in favour of keeping policy unchanged, while Governing Council members didn't offer any clues about the future path, said Tiago Figueiredo over at Desjardins after reading the central bank's latest 'Summary o...
The Supreme Court said that they would hear oral arguments on President Trump's ability to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook in January, allowing her to remain in her position until at least then, and possibly until their ruling in the summer.
Financial stocks were decreasing in Wednesday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index down 0.5% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund shedding 0.7%. The Philadelphia Housing Index was easing 0.1%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund was slipping 0.2%. Bitcoin was increasing 3.1% to $117,536, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was decreasing 3 basis points to 4.12%. US ...
US equity indexes were mixed in midday trading on Wednesday as healthcare helped offset losses, while a failure by lawmakers to extend fiscal-year 2025 funding by Tuesday midnight sent government bond yields lower.
Financial stocks were decreasing in Wednesday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index down 0.5% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund lower by 0.7%. The Philadelphia Housing Index was easing 0.1%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund was slipping 0.2%. Bitcoin was increasing 3.1% to $117,536, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was decreasing 3 basis points to 4.12%. In ...
National Bank of Canada on Wednesday maintained an outperform rating and C$84.00 price target on the shares of Exchange Income (EIFZF) ahead of the company's third quarter results.
Employment in the US private sector fell in September, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported Wednesday, while a federal government shutdown left the release of the official jobs report for last month in limbo. Private jobs decreased by 32,000 last month, ADP reported.
Quebec's provincial government released its public accounts for the 2024-25 fiscal year on Friday, with the deficit for FY25 improving from $8.1 billion to $5.2 billion, representing 0.8% of gross domestic product, said Desjardins. The fiscal improvement for FY25, first hinted at in a late June release, is driven by both stronger own-source revenues and lower-than-expected spending.
National Bank of Canada maintained Topaz Energy's Outperform rating and $33.50 price target after the company announced a tuck-in acquisition, which it said was "highly complementary." The $72 million transaction with Tourmaline Oil (TRMLF) continues to expand and compound Topaz's value trajectory, National Bank said.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
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