INDIA BONDS-US Fed's hawkish tone shuts door on India bond rally for now

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12:51 AM EDT

(Updates at market open)

By Dharamraj Dhutia

MUMBAI, June 18 (Reuters) - Indian government bonds edged slightly lower in early trade on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone than expected, with most policymakers now projecting the start of a rate-hiking cycle before year-end.

The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond rose to 6.8639% by 10:20 a.m. IST from its previous close of 6.8626%. Yields move inversely to prices.

"Bulls will take a backseat for now, as the current levels are bound to react more to negatives, with all positives priced in," trader with a primary dealership said.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but adopted a more hawkish stance, with policymakers signalling higher borrowing costs could be needed later this year as inflation risks persist.

The central bank also removed language suggesting further rate cuts, reflecting waning confidence in the disinflation trend.

The two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to rate expectations jumped to four-month high, with futures pointing out a hike as early as September.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively contained, with the benchmark Brent crude contract below $80 per barrel during Asian hours.

Investors awaited further clarity on the reported U.S.-Iran peace deal and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route that Iran has effectively blocked since the war started on February 28.

Underlying sentiment has turned stronger with foreign investors pouring in over $2.2 billion into Indian government bonds this month, largely after the central bank announced measures to attract dollar inflows.

RATES

India's overnight index swap rates were marginally higher tracking Treasury yields.

The one-year swap rate was at 5.89%, while the two-year rate was at 6.04%. The five-year rate was at 6.30%.

(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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