Bank of Canada Cannot Fix Youth Unemployment, Notes BMO

11:15 AM EDT, 05/27/2026 (MT Newswires) -- In a Tuesday speech, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent highlighted the rise in long-term unemployment, especially for those aged 15-24 years, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The share of the labor force in that age group who have been out of work for a year or more has risen to 1.6%. That's approaching the peaks hit in the wake of the 1982 and 1991 recessions, and is triple the long-run average, noted the bank.

It's a very different story for those 25 and over, where the long-term jobless rate is 0.8%, which is right on the long-term average for that age group, stated BMO.

Vincent explained that the rise for young people was due to demographic factors, the population surge in 2022-24,

cyclical forces as young people are hit first in slowdowns, and structural issues such as employer caution around the implications of Artificial Intelligence.

The key message in the speech is that the BoC needs to sort out what the main driver is, and can't just respond with lower rates immediately to such softness, added the bank.

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