US Equity Investors to Stay Glued to Treasury Yields as Crude Oil Gains Likely to Make Inflation Worse

06:50 AM EDT, 05/18/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will remain focused on President Donald Trump's attempts to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the 30-year Treasury yield traded at a 28-year high amid inflation concerns and Nvidia's (NVDA) quarterly results.

* Oil prices extended gains on Monday as efforts to end the Iran war appeared to have stalled, a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates came under attack, just as US President Donald Trump is expected to discuss military options to tackle Tehran, Reuters reported.

* "For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them," Trump said in a social media post.

* The 30-year yield at 5.13% early Monday is trading at its highest since 2007 amid concern that higher crude oil prices, a supply-side shock, will severely limit the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation.

* The probability of a 25 basis-point increase in US interest rates in December was at 40% early on Monday from 22% a week ago and almost 1% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The comparisons for September and October show a similar jump in rate-increase probabilities.

* Meanwhile, about 20 S&P 500 firms will report this week, including many of the large retailers and the index's biggest constituent, Nvidia (NVDA), according to a D A Davidson note late Friday. S&P 500 earnings have soared by more than 25% year-over-year, versus almost 13% set out as of March 31, based on over quarterly results from 91% firms that have reported. Companies from other equity indexes will also be releasing their results this week.

* Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee April meeting minutes may add more insight into the divisions between hawks, neutral voices, and doves, according to a Scotiabank note late Friday. Four of the 17 FOMC members and three of the voting FOMC members opposed language in the May statement that left the door open to a possible easing bias, but "Will others be revealed?," the note said.

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