TD Sees 2026 as Another "Subdued" Year for Canada's Housing Market Despite April Improvement

11:11 AM EDT, 05/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's existing home sales rose 0.7% month over month in April, while new listings jumped 4.1% month over month, said TD.

Canadian average home prices rose much more sharply in April, increasing 2.6% month over month, noted the bank after Thursday's release of data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The MLS home price index, a more "like-for-like" measure, edged down 0.1% month over month, and was down 4.2% on a year-on-year basis, marking the smallest year-on-year decline so far this year.

Even with climbing interest rates through April, Canadian sales managed to post a gain, while average prices rose more firmly. CREA also noted that activity was stronger heading into May.

These dynamics are consistent with TD's call for an increase in Canadian home sales and average home prices in Q2. However, this will likely only partially retrace significant Q1 weakness, leaving an overall subdued picture for the first half of the year.

Notwithstanding April's bounce-back, the housing market continues to face several headwinds, like weak population growth, elevated supply in key regions and shaky job markets, added the bank.

These factors suggest 2026 could be another subdued year for Canadian housing, according to TD. The regional story is expected to persist as loose supply/demand balances should downwardly pressure prices in British Columbia and Ontario, with tighter markets elsewhere providing some offset.

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