Inflation is most 'pressing risk' to US economy, Fed's Schmid says

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10:16 AM EDT

May 14 (Reuters) - Inflation is the biggest risk to a U.S. economy that has shown "remarkable resilience" in the face of numerous challenges, and the job market is stable, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday.

"I see continued inflation as the most pressing risk to the economy," Schmid said in prepared remarks to a banking industry conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed. "While inflation has moderated significantly from its peak, in my discussions with business leaders across the Tenth District, it is clear that it is still too high."

Schmid, who is not a voter on monetary policy this year, did not comment on the outlook for interest rates. But his emphasis on inflation indicates that he remains squarely within the Fed's hawkish wing opposed to rate cuts as long as inflation continues running above target.

Inflation by the measure the Fed uses to set its 2% target - the personal consumption expenditures price index - was running at 3.5% in March, the first month of the U.S.-Israeli led war against Iran that has triggered big jumps in global crude oil prices and U.S. gasoline prices. Other inflation readings this week for April suggest that headline PCE may have approached 4% last month and has widened beyond energy cost pressures.

"Though the U.S. economy currently faces a number of challenges, it has also shown remarkable resilience," Schmid said. "Geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty. While the United States is less vulnerable to global energy disruptions than in the past, higher oil prices still drain household spending power and increase costs for businesses. Yet despite these headwinds, economic fundamentals in the U.S. and in the Tenth District remain sound."

Indeed U.S. gross domestic product growth picked up speed in the first quarter on the back of strong business investment - especially in the technology sector and artificial intelligence space - and continued consumer spending. Schmid noted that wealth gains from a record-high stock market have helped many consumers, especially from upper-income households,?lift their spending.

"Growth is positive, with economic output expanding at a modest but steady pace so far this year," Schmid said. "Unemployment remains relatively low by historical standards, and the labor market is functioning effectively - albeit in an unusual low-hire/low-fire environment."

(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article