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Canada's Trade Deficit Should Be Down In March, says RBC Ahead of Tuesday's Data Release

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 09:46 AM EDT

09:46 AM EDT, 05/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release its international merchandise trade data for March at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, notes RBC.

Canadian international trade data has been exceptionally volatile, but the merchandise trade deficit should narrow in March with a 40% surge in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict pushing the energy surplus higher, said the bank.

RBC looks for exports to rise almost 5% month over month, and imports to post a smaller 1.5% month-over-month increase, pushing the trade deficit down to $3.8 billion from a deficit of $5.7 billion in February. The bank noted the consensus deficit for March is a smaller $2.0 billion figure.

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