BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:48 AM EDT, 04/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release gross domestic product for February and preliminary March at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Real GDP looks to expand for a third straight month in February, by 0.2% month over month amid stronger manufacturing shipments and retail sales, noted the bank.

Statistics Canada will also report its advance estimate for March GDP, hence capturing the initial effects of the Iran war, as well as a tally for Q1, which BMO expects will show a decent rebound to around 1.5% annualized following Q4's modest contraction.

Also at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, StatsCan releases payroll and job vacancy data (SEPH) for February, which could print lower given the sharp (84,000) drop in household survey employment that month, stated the bank.

Money markets are once again pricing in a couple of rate increases from the Bank of Canada this year after it stated on Wednesday that rate hikes might be needed if rising oil prices add persistence to inflation or raise long-run inflation expectations, which so far remain anchored, added BMO.

Still, the bank expects the BoC to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, as weak demand and slack in the labor market should limit any second-round effects of higher energy costs on inflation.

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