Traders touch less certain of June rate hike as ECB grapples with Iran war

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09:17 AM EDT

* ECB leaves rates unchanged

* Rate-sensitive bond yields fall, euro dips

* Markets trim June ECB rate hike bets (Updates throughout with reaction to ECB decision)

By Harry Robertson and Amanda Cooper

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Traders were feeling a tad less confident on Thursday that the European Central Bank would hike interest rates as early as June, as policymakers weigh the trade off between rising inflation and the hit to growth from higher energy prices.

The ECB held rates at 2%, saying that the risks of both higher inflation and lower growth had intensified as the Iran war disrupts global energy flows.

Bond yields and the euro dipped after the decision as traders slightly trimmed their bets on a June hike. Money markets now price in 22 basis points (bps) of increases by June, compared to around 26 bps earlier on Thursday.

Two-year German bond yields, sensitive to ECB rate expectations, were last down 7 bps at 2.65%.

A fall in oil prices from their highest level in four years helped drag yields lower - as did data from earlier in the session showing that the euro zone economy barely grew in the first quarter.

The tepid growth underscores how vulnerable Europe, a major importer of oil and gas, is to rising energy prices and the tricky situation facing the ECB.

"The economic data released today does not yet warrant a rate hike," said Felix Schmidt, senior economist at Berenberg.

"So far, inflation has been driven solely by the direct effects of energy prices. The ECB will wait to see how significant the indirect effects turn out to be in the coming months."

However, markets are grappling with a fast moving situation and expectations can swing wildly over short periods.

Two weeks ago, oil prices fell sharply in the wake of the April 8 ceasefire and traders had sharply reduced their bets on ECB hikes, only for them to ramp up again over the last week as oil prices rose again.

Money markets now price in around 72 bps of ECB hikes by year-end, down from 76 bps earlier in the session.

The euro fell very slightly after the ECB's decision, but was last up 0.2% at $1.17, while European stocks slightly extended their gains and were last up 0.9%.

"The ECB acknowledged rising inflationary pressures but also more downward risks to growth," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "The policy statement didn't give any hint at the next steps. It looks as if the ECB is in no rush to hike." (Reporting by Harry Robertson; Editing by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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