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Brazil's March trade surplus misses forecasts as imports surge

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 02:41 PM EDT

BRASILIA, April 7 (Reuters) - Brazil's trade surplus fell short of expectations in March, shrinking 17.2% from a year earlier to $6.4 billion, as import growth outpaced the increase in exports, official data released on Tuesday showed.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a surplus of $7.35 billion.

According to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, imports jumped 20.1% year-on-year to $25.2 billion, driven mainly by higher purchases of fuels (+20.5%), fertilizers (+61.0%) and automobiles (+204.2%) - the three most significant items in the import basket.

The surge came amid rising global prices for fuels and fertilizers, caused primarily by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Exports rose 10% to $31.6 billion in March, supported by soybeans (+4.3%) and crude oil shipments (+70.4%), the ministry said.

In the first quarter, Brazil's trade surplus increased 47.6% from a year earlier to $14.2 billion, reflecting stronger export growth relative to imports, contrasting with March's dynamics.

Following the data release, the ministry projected a 2026 trade surplus of $72.1 billion, up from $68.1 billion in 2025. The estimate marks the government's first single-point projection after previously guiding in January for a range of $70 billion to $90 billion.

(Reporting by Marcela Ayres Editing by Bill Berkrot)

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