TSX Closer: Index Up 1,000 Pts Over Two Days On Cautious Optimism That Middle East War Will End Soon; BoC Seen On Hold For Rest of 2026

04:10 PM EDT, 04/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday took total gains for the last two sessions to more than 1,000 points amid cautious optimism that the Middle East war will soon come to an end, while Desjardins sees the Bank of Canada on hold for the remainder of this year, despite talk of it being forced to move quick on rates due to the most recent oil price shock.

Today the TSX was up 189.91 or near 0.6% at 32,957.95, adding to the 833 points gained Tuesday. Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index (up 8.5%), Base Metals (up 2.65%) and Health Care (up near 3.35%). Energy was the biggest loser (down near 3.8%) on the prospect of a quick end to the Middle East war.

According to Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, risk-taking found an "important reason to make a comeback" yesterday and today, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested U.S. forces would withdraw from Iran in "maybe two weeks, maybe three", and possibly even without an agreement from Iran ("Iran doesn't have to make a deal, no.").

Meanwhile, on the home front, Tiago Figueiredo of Desjardins in response to the release of the 'Summary of Deliberations', an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada's Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on March 18, 2026, said Canadian central bankers appear comfortable waiting on the sidelines for now. He added: "The conflict in Iran injected another source of uncertainty and members agreed that it was too early to reliably estimate the net impact on Canadian growth and inflation. In response, officials emphasized a preference for gathering more information, keeping policy options open, and explicitly reintroduced the language for a risk management approach to policy setting."

Figueiredo noted Governing Council acknowledged that risks to the Canadian economy looked tilted to the downside. He added: "Higher oil prices should provide a boost to aggregate growth but tighter financial conditions and the potential drag from rising energy prices on businesses and consumers remained in focus. Furthermore, the starting point for economic activity was weaker than policymakers had expected in January."

According to Figueiredo, the weaker starting point for the economy limits the risk inflation spreads to other sectors quickly. Specifically, he said, the BoC release noted "the economy was starting from a position of excess supply, with inflation around target, which could limit the pass-through of energy costs to other goods and services." Furthermore, he added, officials indicated when the economy is weak, "firms often look for ways to avoid raising prices so that they don't lose customers." Figueiredo said these points led policymakers to the conclusion they had time to assess how the conflict would develop. "That said," he added, "officials indicated they would remain vigilant for any signs of inflation spreading to other goods and services and any changes in inflation expectations."

Figueiredo said all of this is consistent with a central bank that is likely to remain on hold. "The conflict adds another layer of uncertainty, but governing council is still monitoring the ongoing structural shifts in the economy and the upcoming CUSMA review. Ultimately, we continue to see the Bank of Canada on hold for the remainder of this year."

Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal reported precious metals rose to start April, with the gold closing up 2.9% to US$4,783.20 a troy ounce and silver rising 1.6% to $75.867 a troy ounce. The WSJ noted gold and silver have gained for four consecutive sessions, making up ground after the outbreak of the war in Iran made speculation on precious metals futures less attractive for investors. It said analysts pointed to a weaker U.S. dollar and speculation over what President Trump will say in his prime-time speech tonight as drivers for precious metals. Indications of a coming end to the war in Iran is underpinning gains for precious metals, as money moved out of crude oil, it added.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that crude futures ended the session lower as the market cautiously holds out hope for a quick end to the Middle East conflict while awaiting President Trump's planned address on Iran at 9pm ET. Trump posted that Iran's president has asked the U.S. for a cease-fire, and Iranian state media said the foreign ministry called the statement false. "From a geopolitical perspective, a premature U.S. withdrawal would be framed as a strategic victory for Tehran," Samer Hasn of XS.com is cited saying in a note. It's unlikely Trump will accept a resolution that risks domestic political humiliation or leaves a resurgent Iranian regime emboldened, he reportedly added. "The structural threat to global energy stability remains acute." WTI was down 1.2% at US$100.12 a barrel, and Brent down 2.7% to $101.16

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