BMO on The Week Ahead in Canada

07:26 AM EDT, 03/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release monthly real gross domestic product data on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that Canada's economy "stumbled out of the gate" to start the year, and BMO expects real GDP growth to come in flat in January. That's in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate as manufacturing sales and wholesale trade volumes plunged.

Auto production fell heavily as a model switch delayed assemblies, which should normalize in the coming months. Home sales also sagged, weighed in part by extreme winter weather in Central Canada.

On the positive side, hours worked rose and retail sales volumes were firm, highlighting consumer resilience despite significant uncertainty, pointed out the bank. StatsCan also noted increases in oil and natural gas, mining, finance and insurance, offsetting some of the downside risk to BMO's call.

The bank will also be watching the February flash GDP estimate, given the disappointing slide in hours worked, although the advance reads on retail, manufacturing, and wholesale were positive. Looking ahead, the Iran war will weigh on growth through slower global demand, although there will be some offsetting support for energy-producing provinces.

Finally, the bank will look for the merchandise trade deficit to narrow slightly to $3.0 billion in February from $3.6 billion in the previous month. International merchandise trade data is out on Thursday.

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