XRP, Cardano Drop 5%: How Much Lower Can They Go?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) fell 4% while Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) dropped 5% on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and raised 2026 inflation expectations to 2.7% from 2.4%.

XRP’s $1.2 Breakdown Risk

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XRP trades trapped between Supertrend resistance at $1.5890 and support near $1.20. 

All four EMAs remain bearishly stacked above price, with the 20 EMA at $1.4285, 50 at $1.5068, 100 at $1.6978, and 200 at $1.9518. Price hasn’t traded above the 200 EMA since October 2025.

Open interest sits at $2.79 billion, dramatically lower than the $10-$11 billion peak during January 2026 euphoria. 

The decline in open interest alongside falling price reflects long-side capitulation and deleveraging, not fresh short conviction.

The long-short ratio on Binance accounts stands at 2.48, with top traders leaning long at 2.78. 

This heavily one-sided positioning in a downtrend typically fuels violent flush moves when longs get squeezed. 

Liquidation data shows longs absorbed $9.02 million in losses versus $648,000 for shorts over 24 hours.

A daily close below $1.43 would likely accelerate selling toward $1.20, the prior swing low. Any recovery that fails to clear the Supertrend at $1.5890 should be treated as noise. Until $1.59 is reclaimed on a daily close, the burden of proof sits with bulls.

Cardano’s $0.22 Floor Test

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Cardano is threatening to break beneath Fibonacci 0.382 support at $0.2773. 

Losing this level with conviction opens the door toward $0.2556, and beyond that, the psychological floor at $0.2206.

All four EMAs stack bearishly, with price trading well below the 100 EMA at $0.3433 and 200 EMA at $0.4434. 

The 20 EMA at $0.2721 is kissing current price. A decisive breakdown below confirms even short-term momentum has rolled over.

Two converging trendlines are compressing price into a tightening wedge. This structure typically resolves with a sharp move in either direction. 

A downside break aligns with the broader bearish bias. A surprise bounce could target the 0.5 Fib at $0.2948 given how coiled the setup looks.

RSI sits at 50.24, with the signal line at 46.43. RSI spiked sharply earlier in the session but has since retreated, suggesting intraday buying pressure failed to hold.

The Fed Catalyst

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% as expected but raised 2026 inflation expectations to 2.7% from 2.4%. 

Bitcoin fell nearly 4% to $71,600 following the decision. The dot plot continues to show expectations for one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026 and one more in 2027.

“The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain,” the Fed said, referencing the Iran war that sent oil prices near $100 per barrel.

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