CIBC Says Canada's Deficit Surge in January Adds to Evidence of Weak 2026 Start

08:59 AM EDT, 03/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian international trade deficit widened "dramatically" in January, but the details of the report were "a little less negative", said CIBC after Thursday's release of the data.

The $3.65 billion deficit compared with the consensus expectation for a $1.1 billion shortfall, and the prior month's deficit of $1.3 billion, noted the bank.

Exports were down by 4.7% month over month in nominal terms, with six of 11 product sections falling, which translated into a 5.8% month over month decrease in volume terms. However, that was partly the result of retooling at auto plants that thwarted shipments, as well as distortions tied to the volatile gold category, stated CIBC.

Imports were down by 1.1% month over month in nominal terms, and 2.2% in volume terms, reflecting drops in seven of 11 product sections, with retooling at auto plants also weighing on imports.

Overall, this adds to evidence of a weak start to 2026 for the Canadian economy, although the temporary impact of auto plants retooling suggests upside in the following months for real exports, according to the bank.

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