U.S. February CPI matches forecasts, reinforcing expectations for no near-term rate cuts

U.S. inflation data met expectations on Wednesday, reinforcing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady not just at its March 18 meeting, but likely at the bank's April meeting as well.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in February, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist forecasts had been for a rise of 0.3% and January's increase was 0.2%.

On a year-over-year basis, CPI was higher by 2.4% against expectations of 2.4% and January's 2.4%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in February versus forecasts of 0.2% and January's 0.3%. Year-over-year core CPI was higher by 2.5% versus forecasts of 2.5% and January's 2.5%.

Under modest pressure for the morning, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,500 in the minutes following the report, lower by 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower across the board and the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.18%. The main actor in markets this week, WTI crude oil was higher by 4.2% to $87 per barrel.

Ahead of the data, markets were pricing in a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. For the April meeting, rate cut odds were at just 11% versus 21% one month ago.

February's inflation numbers, of course, are somewhat old news given the events that have transpired since, namely the war in Iran and spiking oil prices. How much this plays into the Fed's thinking on interest rates should become more evident following next week's policy meeting.