Iran fallout pushes market views of next Fed rate cut further away

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09:47 AM EST

March 3 (Reuters) - Expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume interest rate cuts before September eroded further on Tuesday, as rising oil prices from the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran heightened concern that inflation pressures would keep the central bank in a hawkish posture.

Interest rate futures and Treasury securities saw fierce selling for a second straight day after the launch of air strikes against Tehran over the weekend that killed the country's long-time leader. With the crucial Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic and the flow of 20% of the world's crude oil effectively shut off for an indeterminate time, U.S. oil prices have surged by more than 13% since Friday.

While the U.S. economy is far less sensitive to oil than it was during the 1970s oil price shocks, it nevertheless poses a risk to headline inflation through higher energy prices. Indeed, retail gasoline prices jumped 10 cents a gallon in the last 24 hours, according to AAA, with prospects high for more increases in the near term.

The rate futures selloff knocked down to around 35% the prospects for a Fed rate cut in June when Kevin Warsh - President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell - would lead a policy-setting meeting for the first time. Moreover, traders currently see only a 55% chance of a cut by July, down from more than 70% in recent days.

The perceived chance of further easing beyond an initial cut is dropping as well, with rate traders pricing in only about a 56% chance of a second rate cut by December.

(Reporting By Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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