CIBC On A Busy Holiday-shortened Week Ahead In Canada Economics

02:15 PM EST, 02/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian markets are closed Monday for a "Family Day" holiday, but CIBC notes January Housing Starts and December Manufacturing Shipments data is still due out at 8.15am and 8.30am respectively that day. On Housing Starts, CIBC forecasts 255k versus a consensus 265k, and for Shipments it estimates 0.5%, in line with consensus.

After that, it will be busy in terms of economic data and news next week.

On the big data, Avery Shenfeld says the various CPI measures due Tuesday should point to a 12-month underlying inflation rate still in the 2.5% range, "not nearly far enough above target to bring on any discussion of a rate hike given all the uncertainties surrounding economic growth ahead". CIBC sees a rise of 0.1% month over month and 2.4% year over year in January CPI (in line with consensus) and also sees a year over year 2.5% gain in CPI-Core Median and 2.6% gain in CPI-Core Trim, both of them also in line with consensus.

Also on Tuesday, BC kicks off the provincial budget season, one that CIBC expects will show that, collectively, provinces are reluctant to turn the dial up on fiscal stimulus as they keep an eye on deficits. "That's a message that BC Premier Eby has underscored in talking about cuts in that province's public service headcount," Shenfeld said.

According to Shenfeld, November's "healthy" retail sales gain "might have eaten into the room for further spending" in the week ahead's data for December, due next Friday. CIBC sees a drop of 0.5% in total retail trade m/m (same as consensus) and a drop of 0.8% ex-auto m/m (compared to a consensus +0.1%).

Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are December Int'l Securities Transactions and December Wholesale Sales ex-petroleum (CIBC forecasts 2%, same as consensus) on Tuesday; then the auction of $5.25 billion in 5-YR CANADAS and the release of January Existing Home Sales data on Wednesday; before December Trade data on Thursday, with CIBC seeing a deficit of $1.5 billion vs consensus around a deficit of $2 billion.

Friday will also see the release of January Industrial Product Prices (consensus +0.2%) and Raw Materials (consensus +0.6%) data for January, and the release of the Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer Survey.

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