US rate futures lift June Fed cut bets after soft inflation print

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 02/13/26 09:00 AM EST

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rate futures on Friday raised odds of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in ?June after a report that showed ?inflation rose less than expected in January.

Futures on the federal ?funds rate, which measure the cost of unsecured ?overnight loans between banks, priced in ?a nearly 70% ?chance that the Fed will resume cutting interest rates at ?the June meeting. That was ?64% before the data's release.

The U.S. central bank, however, is still expected to ?hold interest rates steady ?at the ?March meeting.

Fed funds futures?also implied 64 basis points (bps) of easing by the central bank after the ?data, compared with 58 bps just before.

Data ?showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI ?increasing ?0.3%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy ?components, the CPI increased 0.3% after rising by an ?unrevised 0.2% in December.

"As long as CPI remains in check - which so far it has - then the rates discussion will revert back to the labor market, and under the current economic conditions the Fed is likely ?to proceed cautiously lowering rates a couple of times later this year," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief ?investment officer for Northlight ?Asset Management in Charlotte, North Carolina.

(Reporting ?by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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