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UBS Previews Next Week's Policy Meeting at The New Zealand Central Bank

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 02/13/26 08:55 AM EST

08:55 AM EST, 02/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS said it anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at Wednesday's policy meeting.

This event marks the first press conference for the new Governor, Anna Breman, and investors are keen to hear how the Committee weighs higher than target inflation against unemployment, which is still at its highest level in a decade, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Currently, UBS noted, money markets are pricing in about 45 basis points of rate increases by end 2026.

UBS said persistent inflation and a robust economy suggest the RBNZ may adopt a slightly more hawkish tone. As a consequence, it expects the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement will show an OCR forecast that no longer includes the possibility of a near-term rate cut and instead signals an earlier rate hike.

UBS still sees two 25-basis-point rate hikes, in September and December, and it continues to like selling downside in NZD/USD at 0.61 or lower.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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