Topics To Watch In Google's Earnings Call: 'Ironwood,' Gemini 3, And YouTube Shorts

Alphabet reports fourth-quarter results today after the bell, an event that serves as a high-stakes health check for the global economy.

As one of the world’s largest companies, Google's performance is a primary engine for both digital advertising and the “AI capex” supercycle that is currently propping up GDP growth.

While Wall Street analysts are focused on the $111.4 billion revenue target, Polymarket traders are placing bets on the specific strategic “tells” that will define Google's 2026. Here is what Polymarket traders have on the agenda:

The “Ironwood” Inference Play

Traders are looking past standard hardware talk and betting heavily on the mention of Ironwood, Google's seventh-generation high-performance TPU.

With ASIC server shipments projected to grow 64.2% this year?outpacing even Nvidia (NVDA)'s GPUs?Polymarket traders estimate an 85% chance that management will emphasize how Ironwood gives Google a structural advantage in the AI arms race.

Gemini 3: The Leaderboard Lockdown

Optimism is surging around Google's technical dominance, with Gemini 3 Pro currently sitting at the top of the Arena.ai Leaderboard. 

Polymarket is almost certain (98%) that Sundar Pichai will leverage these rankings to prove that Google has officially overtaken OpenAI in the “vibes” and “agentic coding” wars.

For investors in high-value tickers like Palantir (PLTR) or Microsoft (MSFT) , a Gemini-first narrative matters because Wall Street is already bracing for another capex step-up in 2026 as the tech industry builds AI infrastructure.

YouTube Shorts

Traders currently price in a 77% chance that management will highlight the rapid monetization of YouTube Shorts.

During the Q3 2025 earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai stated, “In the U.S., Shorts now earn more revenue per watch hour than traditional in-stream on YouTube.”

This marks a fundamental transformation for a product that originally served as a “discovery tool” but has now matured into a primary cash cow.

What’s not on the agenda

Prediction market odds suggest a “silent treatment” regarding AI regulation.

This suggests traders expect Google to treat antitrust risk as a background issue rather than a headline concern, at least for this quarter.

While Google continues to hit technical milestones, Polymarket activity suggests the “quantum mania” that gripped the sector last year has moderated.

Traders are pricing in a 38% probability of Quantum mentions during today’s call, reflecting a broader market shift that prioritizes short term revenue over long-horizon moonshots.

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