Commerzbank on Overnight News

06:46 AM EST, 01/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "Euroepan Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasury futures quickly reverse initial gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments; no cash trading amid a holiday in Japan. E-minis weaken amid mixed Asian equities. Gold jumps to a record high on Powell news. The euro (EUR) jumps to $1.167.

Fed: Department of Justice launches criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell over HQ renovation. Powell issues statement, saying criminal investigation threatens Fed's independence, it "is about whether Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions - or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."

U.S.: President Donald Trump reiterates the need to control Greenland, says he "would like to make a deal the easy way," but if that's not possible, "we're going to do it the hard way."

U.S.: Trump calls for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%.

Geopolitics: Germany will propose a NATO mission in the Arctic region to ease tensions with the U.S. over Greenland threats.

Middle East: President Trump says the U.S. is closely monitoring protests in Iran and is looking at some "very strong options." Iran warns the U.S. against intervention.

==EUROPE:

France: The Finance Committee of the National Assembly rejects both revenue and expenditure parts of the budget. Budget minister warns that adoption risks being postponed until March if the government falls in a confidence vote next week. Minister Roland Lescure says a snap election would be "logical consequence" if the government falls.

ECB/France: European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterates the importance of a budget in France for 2026, warns that the country might be "stifled" if the deficit isn't reduced, calls for a maximum deficit of 5% to avoid the "red danger zone".

ECB: Six candidates are running to succeed Vice President Luis de Guindos (Eurogroup statement).

EU demands "Farage clause" in Brexit reset talks (FT).

Trade: European Union member states back Mercosur deal with some Latin American countries.

==ASIA:

Japan: Leader of coalition partner says government has "shifted to a new stage" after speaking with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, adding to speculation about snap election.

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