BMO Sees October GDP Down 0.2%; Focus Also On November's Flash Estimate

07:15 AM EST, 12/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian economy likely contracted in October, following modest growth in September, says Benjamin Reitzes in a BMO morning note Tuesday.

Reitzes notes that manufacturing activity has slipped, as tariffs weigh, with the sector contracting for most of the past two years now. He also notes retail volumes fell 0.6%, a third decline in four months. Wholesale volumes dipped as well, though they have eked out small gains this year. Hours worked fell in the month due to the Alberta teachers' strike, which likely also weighed. On the positive side, Reitzes notes, home sales crept higher in the month.

Despite the various headwinds, BMO is expecting October GDP to fall 0.2%, a tick away from Statcan's -0.3% flash estimate. Either way, Reitzes says Q4 looks to have started off on the back foot, making the November flash estimate key to whether Canada can avoid the second quarterly contraction of the year.

Canada's monthly real GDP report is out at 8.30am ET this morning.

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