Bitcoin is all over the place ahead of U.S. inflation data

Crypto (CRCW) traders have had a tough time figuring out the market in the last 24 hours as bitcoin's (BTC) price swung wildly between $86,000 and $90,000.

Things could get more exciting later Thursday with key U.S. inflation data for November coming up. This will give a fresh look at price pressures in the economy after the record government shutdown canceled the October data and left the Federal Reserve in the dark.

What the data might show

The data is expected to show the headline consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.1% on a yearly basis in November, up from October's 3%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast at 3.1%.

That's still one full point above the Fed's 2% goal, which could embolden hawks at the Fed to talk down expectations of interest rate cuts. As of writing, markets anticipate at least two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts next year.

Expert view

"This release is highly anticipated, largely because the recent government shutdown-related data disruptions left the Federal Reserve (and the broader market) flying partially blind. With the October report canceled, this is the first comprehensive look at price developments in weeks," Dr Mohamed A. El-Erian is President of Queens' College, Cambridge University and part-time Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz (ALNZF) and Chair of Gramercy Fund Management, said on X.

He added that markets will be looking for two things: whether the disinflation trend in services has stronger legs and what remains of the tariff-driven price pass throughs in good inflation.

Why Bitcoin might react

Should the data confirm disinflation, it could prompt markets to price in additional rate cuts for 2026, galvanizing risk taking in financial markets. Note, however, that BTC did not show a sustained bullish reaction to the jobs data released Tuesday, which showed jobless rate at highest since September 2021.

Besides, the 10-year Treasury yield has held sticky above 4% in recent months despite Fed easing. This is partly due to uncertainty about inflation, as CPI has steadily risen from 2.3% in May to 3% in October.

Longer duration yields like the 10-year incorporate investor bets on inflation trends, economic growth, and Fed policy paths. Higher yields signal stronger expectations in these areas and boost attractiveness of fixed-income instruments, denting the appeal of risk assets.

Against this backdrop, a hotter-than-expected inflation report could raise yields further, complicating matters for BTC bulls.

Crypto challenges

Note that crypto-specific factors aren't helping either. For instance, MSCI's (MSCI) review of digital asset treasuries poses a major headwind.

"MSCI (MSCI) is reviewing the index eligibility of digital-asset treasury companies, with potential exclusions for firms holding more than 50% exposure to crypto. If enacted, passive outflows could reach up to USD 2.8 billion, adding pressure to an already fragile market," the market insights team at Singapore-based QCP Capital said.