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Fed December Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 30%

BY Coindesk | ECONOMIC | 11/20/25 02:25 AM EST By AI Boost

The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% has fallen to 30%, down from 50% both a day and a week ago, and sharply from 98% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The conviction has evaporated amid concerns over a prolonged data blackout, making it increasingly difficult for policymakers to make an informed decision. On Wednesday, the Labor Department confirmed that it wouldn't release the jobs data for October, citing the record-length the recently concluded government shutdown.

At the same time, minutes of the October Fed meeting released Wednesday showed deep fissures over whether to pause or cut rates.

Bitcoin changed hands at $91,700 at press time, up 0.8% on a 24-hour basis.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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