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December Fed Rate Cut: A Toss-Up

BY Coindesk | ECONOMIC | 11/13/25 07:28 AM EST By Omkar Godbole

Federal Reserve rate cut odds for December have fallen to near coin toss levels, signaling rising uncertainty among investors ahead of the Dec. 10 meeting, according to data source CME's FedWatch tool.

Markets now price roughly a 52% chance of a 25 basis point cut, down sharply from 95% a month ago and 65% a week ago. A potential 25 bps cut would push the? benchmark interest rate range down to 3.5%-3.75%.

The dwindling probability of the December cut could continue to cap gains in BTC and other cryptocurrencies. As of writing, BTC changed hands near $103,000, trading little changed on the day, according to CoinDesk data.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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