Asia Morning Briefing: BTC, ETH Markets Steady as Traders Await CPI and China-U.S. De-Escalation Signs

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

Crypto (CRCW) markets have entered midweek in a holding pattern.

Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week, while Ether is changing hands near $3,815.

The rebound reflects what QCP Capital called a ?narrow-range equilibrium? as traders await Friday?s CPI report, the only major U.S. economic data release not delayed by the shutdown.

In its note, QCP said CPI is the ?singular anchor? for policy expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a softer 0.2% print could ?re-anchor the soft-landing trade? and support Bitcoin?s upside skew as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is likely to stay elevated, with dips finding support if the dollar and real yields ease further.

Polymarket traders now assign a 77% probability that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff agreement by Nov. 10, while the odds of Trump?s promised 100% tariffs on China taking effect have fallen to 16%.

In its note, QCP argues that Trump will once again opt for a symbolic deal over confrontation, making the upcoming meeting with Xi "pragmatic", a view reinforced by his softer weekend remarks that ?the USA wants to help China, not hurt it.?

The relative calm in both crypto and equities reflects this d?tente narrative.

Last week?s $20 billion liquidation flush and Binance?s collateral mispricing have largely run their course, setting a cleaner slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event. Whether that calm holds will depend on whether Friday?s inflation print keeps the ?soft landing? story alive, or revives the volatility that markets have only just begun to shake off.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108K, consolidating after a recent run?up, with sellers limiting immediate breakout potential while analysts at Standard Chartered (SCBFF) say a dip below $100,000 could be a ?last chance to buy? before the next leg higher.

ETH: Ethereum is trading around $3,800 with volume up 33% as traders accumulate ahead of U.S. inflation data, though a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long liquidations, leaving analysts divided between a potential breakout toward $5,000 or a slide toward $2,850 if support at $3,470 fails.

Gold: Gold continues to experience a record-setting sell-off with futures down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday?s 5.7% plunge, as investors took profits from its record run, though analysts said strong central-bank buying and rate-cut expectations should keep bullion supported.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, with Japan?s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, after reports that the Trump administration may restrict exports to China reignited U.S.-China trade tensions.

Elsewhere in Crypto (CRCW)

• Crypto Is Finally Growing Up, Says VC Giant Andreessen Horowitz (Decrypt)
• Crypto (CRCW) lost 1,000 jobs to AI since ChatGPT launched?but gained them back from other sectors, says a16z report (Fortune)
• Tensions rise as Senate Democrats, crypto executives meet on sweeping digital assets bill (The Block)