TSX up 94 Points at Midday, Led by Gains in Commodities, Telecoms Down

12:24 PM EDT, 09/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up over 94 points at midday with miners and energy, both up 0.8%, leading gains.

Limiting gains is the telecoms sector, which is down 1.2%.

All eyes are on central banks in Canada and the U.S. on Wednesday, as both will be making policy announcements on the same day.

BMO sees both central banks cutting rates by 25 bps at these meetings. For the Bank of Canada, BMO said the CPI report on Tuesday poses a small risk that they hold off, but said it will have to come in very hot. For the Fed, BMO added there's a very small chance priced in that they go 50. "While both are looking at softening job market conditions but still-stubborn inflation, the Fed is sitting with rates at a meaningfully higher level going in."

BMO's Benjamin Reitzes said despite ongoing elevated uncertainty around the outlook for the economy and inflation, the persistent output gap and deteriorating labour market will likely prompt a 25 bp rate cut by the BoC at the September meeting. Listen, he added, to the tone from Governor Macklem to assess whether the BoC is keen on cutting in back-to-back meetings and for any clue on how stimulative they'd like policy to be.

Looking further ahead, BMO continues to believe there is scope for the BoC to shave rates down by 75 bps from here, and the market has fully priced in 50 bps of easing by March 2026. For the Fed, BMO said there's still 125-to-150 bps worth easing to get rates back down to the presumed neutral level, and it added the question is how long that will take given still-stubborn inflation. BMO noted last week's CPI report for August wasn't terrible (equities actually rallied on the back of it), but it certainly didn't give monetary policymakers a green light. Market pricing remains pretty gradual overall, with 125 bps of easing priced in by July 2026. "Let's just say the Fed has one eye on the job market, and one on the easing button," BMO said.

In terms of domestic data, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Monday released statistics on the country's home sales for August. In summary: National home sales were up 1.1% month-over-month; actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 1.9% above August 2024; The number of newly listed properties climbed 2.6% on a month-over-month basis;tThe MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.

Meanwhile, total Canadian manufacturing sales rose by 2.5% month over month to $70.3 billion in July, following a modest 0.3% increase in June, the country's statistical agency said Monday. The July increase topped the 2.5% month-over-month consensus advance forecast by MUFG. Also, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 1.2% to $86.0 billion in July, Statistics Canada said Monday.

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