Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Ease, Labor Market Outlook Improves, New York Fed Survey Shows

03:53 PM EST, 02/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US consumers expect lower inflation a year from now, while their overall labor market outlook generally improved, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Monday.

Median year-ahead inflation was seen at 3.1% in January, down by 0.3 percentage point from the previous month's outlook, according to the survey. The forecasts for the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% each, the Fed branch said.

Year-ahead expectations eased for gas, medical care, and rent, while price change expectations were unchanged for food. Expectations for the cost of college education rose, according to the Fed branch.

Government data are expected to show Friday that consumer inflation rose 2.5% annually in January, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. In December, the consumer price index increased 2.7% year on year.

The New York Fed survey showed "modest improvements" in consumers' perception regarding the labor market, with median year-ahead earnings growth expectations up by 0.2 percentage point at 2.7% in January.

The mean perceived probability of a job loss in the next 12 months decreased, while the likelihood of finding a job after losing one increased, it said. However, the probability that the unemployment rate will rise one year from now increased.

Official data are likely to show Wednesday that the US economy added 70,000 jobs in January, compared with a 50,000 gain reported for the month prior, according to a Bloomberg poll.

Last Friday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the US central bank's current monetary policy is "well positioned" to address risks to inflation and the labor market, while he underscored the need for "careful" monitoring of incoming data.

Late last month, the central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged, citing signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate.

The jobs and consumer price index reports were delayed due to a partial US federal government shutdown that ended last week.

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