New York Manufacturing Unexpectedly Contracts as Orders Decline, Survey Shows

10:23 AM EDT, 09/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- New York manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in September as orders and shipments turned negative, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey showed Monday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index plunged to minus 8.7 this month, marking the first negative reading since June, from 11.9 in August, the Fed branch said. The consensus was for a reading of 5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

"Manufacturing activity declined modestly in New York State in September, with the survey's headline index turning negative on the heels of positive readings over the summer," said Richard Deitz, economic research adviser at the New York Fed.

The index for new orders swung to minus 19.6 in September from 15.4 last month, while shipments sank to minus 17.3 from 12.2 -- the lowest levels since April 2024 for both measures, according to the New York Fed.

"Delivery times were steady, and supply availability worsened somewhat," the Fed branch said in a report. Input price increases slowed but remained elevated, while selling price gains remained moderated, it said.

The employment index turned negative, falling to minus 1.2 from 4.4.

Six months out, the index for business activity dipped to 14.8 in September from 16 last month. The future new order index slightly improved, while the shipment gauge declined, the survey showed.

"Optimism about the outlook remained muted and employment levels are expected to be flat over the next six months," Deitz said.

A New York Fed survey showed last week that the expectation of finding a new job in the US hit a record low level last month.

Recent data, including a soft jobs report for August, indicated a slowing labor market, keeping bets intact for a Fed interest rate cut of 25 basis points at Wednesday's policy meeting, even as inflation appeared to be heating up.

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