Fed's Williams sees slower growth, higher inflation this year on tariffs, uncertainty

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expects slower growth and higher inflation this year due in large part to trade tariffs, in comments that gave little in the way of guidance for what's next for central bank interest rate policy.

"I expect uncertainty and tariffs to restrain spending and reduced immigration to slow labor force growth," Williams said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before an event held by NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex, in Albany, New York.

Williams said that as a result he expects growth to slow considerably this year to around 1%, with the unemployment rate rising from its current 4.2% level to 4.5% by year's end. The official also expects that inflation will rise to 3% as President Donald Trump's tariffs drive up prices before taking two years to gradually ease back to the 2% target.

Williams' comments were his first since last week's interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting. That gathering saw officials maintain their overnight target rate range at between 4.25% and 4.5% as they navigate the high levels of uncertainty created by Trump's trade regime of rapidly shifting import tax rises.

The FOMC meeting also saw Fed officials pencil in two rate cuts this year, and two members of the Fed's Board of Governors have said they believe the tariffs are likely to drive a one-time increase in inflation, as they signaled openness to cutting rates at the late July FOMC meeting.

Williams did not offer any forward-looking comments on rate policy in his prepared remarks. He said of the FOMC meeting that "maintaining this modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals." He added the Fed's current rate stance "allows for time to closely analyze incoming data, assess the evolving outlook, and evaluate the balance of risks to achieving our dual mandate goals."

Williams also said the hard data shows "the U.S. economy remains in a good place" while soft data has pointed toward more weakness. Williams said he welcomed data showing modest expected inflation. (Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )