CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar gains as CPI data fails to boost rate cut bets

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 06/24/25 10:48 AM EDT

*

Canadian dollar gains 0.3% against the greenback

*

Trades in a range of 1.3679 to 1.3738

*

Annual rate of CPI holds steady at 1.7%

*

Bond yields edge lower across the curve

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, June 24 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, as domestic data showed underlying inflation easing in May but not by enough to bolster expectations for additional interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.

The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3690 per U.S. dollar, or 73.05 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3679 to 1.3738.

Canada's annual inflation rate in May was unchanged from the previous month at 1.7%, while CPI-trim and CPI-median - two core measures of inflation closely tracked by the BoC - both eased to 3%, which is the upper-end of the central bank's target range. "I still think it's too warm to be contemplating rate cuts as soon as the July meeting but we'll get another report (before then) and so there's still some residual uncertainty," said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank. Investors see a 34% chance the BoC resumes its easing campaign at the next policy announcement on July 30, down from 38% before the data. Inflation data for June is set for release on July 15. The safe-haven U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Data that showed U.S. consumer confidence declining in June added to pressure on the greenback even as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank needs more time to see if rising tariffs drive inflation higher before considering interest rate cuts. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was trading 5.1% lower at $65.04 a barrel on what the market viewed as lower risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Canadian government bond yields edged lower across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.3 basis points at 3.266%. (Reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa Babington)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article