How businesses and consumers respond to ongoing economic shocks will determine if the U.S. Federal Reserve can "look through" current high inflation or needs to consider raising interest rates, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday.
How businesses and consumers respond to ongoing economic shocks will determine if the U.S. Federal Reserve can "look through" current high inflation or needs to consider raising interest rates, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday.
When Kevin Warsh takes command of the Federal Reserve, he will do so as some central bank officials and staff have become increasingly anxious about the state of the financial markets and the risk that presents to the economy.
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan shot to its highest since August this week as yields on the government bonds most influential in setting residential borrowing costs have climbed on concern about the inflation being aggravated by the war with Iran.
Uncertainty around the impacts of the war in Iran dominated the Bank of Mexico's May split decision to cut the country's interest rate, although the bank's majority ultimately saw risks from the conflict as mixed, according to minutes from the meeting published Thursday.
Uncertainty around the impacts of war in the Middle East dominated the Bank of Mexico's May monetary policy decision, which ended in a split 3-2 vote to cut Mexico's benchmark interest rate, according to minutes from the meeting which were published Thursday morning.
Some U.S. Federal Reserve officials proposed extending a critical, international supply line of U.S. dollars to underpin financial stability, according to an account of their recent meeting. The discussion centred on extending so-called U.S. dollar swap lines, which the Fed has with five major central banks and has become a key backstop for global banking since the financial crisis.
* Iran hardens stance on nuclear issue in peace talks, sources say. * Euro zone bond yields rise as oil prices jump and inflation concerns mount. * PMI data and Nomura economists highlight stagflation risks from Iran war. By Amanda Cooper.
Some U.S. Federal Reserve officials proposed extending a critical, international supply line of U.S. dollars to underpin financial stability, according to an account of their recent meeting. The discussion centred on extending so-called U.S. dollar swap lines, which the Fed has with five major central banks and has become a key backstop for global banking since the financial crisis.
* Oil prices climb over 2% * Iran issues directive on country's near-weapons-grade uranium. * Traders now see 58% chance of at least one rate hike by 2026-end. By Ishaan Arora. Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday as climbing oil prices heightened inflation worries, boosting bets for U.S. rate hikes and lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, which added more pressure on bullion.
* Weekly jobless claims fall 3,000 to 209,000; layoffs remain low despite high-profile tech job cuts. * Continuing claims increase 6,000 to a still relatively low 1.782 million. * Single-family housing starts drop 9.0% in April; building permits decrease 2.6% By Lucia Mutikani.
U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened in May, scaling the highest level in four years, as businesses boosted inventories to guard against potential shortages and rising prices related to the war with Iran. S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3 this month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 54.5 in April.
U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped sharply in April and permits for future construction fell, suggesting the housing market could remain subdued for a while as the Iran war drives up mortgage rates and an oversupply of new houses persists.
U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped sharply in April and permits for future construction fell, suggesting the housing market could remain subdued for a while as the Iran war drives up mortgage rates and an oversupply of new houses persists.
U.S. Treasury yields retraced a portion of their Thursday morning gains after the release of stronger-than-expected economic data, as investors weigh the Iran war's impact on inflation and the U.S. economy.
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to labor market resilience and giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on surging inflation from the war with Iran. There are no signs yet that employers are responding to rising costs by reducing headcount.
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to labor market resilience and giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on rising inflation. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended May 16, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
* Oil prices climb around 3% * Tehran said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses. * Gold has fallen more than 14% since the war began. By Anjana Anil. Gold eased on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and high Treasury yields, while stagnant peace talks in the Middle East kept oil elevated, inflation concerns alive, and reinforced bets of higher interest rates.
* Euro zone composite PMI lowest since October 2023. * European Commission downgrades forecasts. * War impacts add to domestic worries in UK. By Jonathan Cable and Mark John.
* Iran hardens stance on nuclear issue in peace talks, sources say. * Euro zone bond yields rise as oil prices jump and inflation concerns mount. * PMI data and Nomura economists highlight stagflation risks from Iran war. By Amanda Cooper.
* Two new EX30 battery fires prompt Thai watchdog to weigh civil action. * Volvo faces complaints as customers await battery fixes after global recall. * Repair timelines vary, with some markets waiting until late-2026 for replacements. By Chayut Setboonsarng and Marie Mannes.
* Euro zone composite PMI lowest since October 2023. * Services activity contracted at the sharpest pace since February 2021. * Cost pressures rose sharply due to Middle East war. By Jonathan Cable.
* Oil prices edge higher. * Tehran said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses. * Gold has fallen more than 14% since the war began. By Anjana Anil. Gold ticked lower on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and high Treasury yields, while stagnant peace talks in the Middle East kept oil elevated, inflation concerns alive, and reinforced bets of higher interest rates.
Economic activity in the euro zone shrank at its sharpest rate in more than two-and-a-half years in May, as a war-driven surge in living costs hammered demand for services and pushed overall input price inflation to its highest in three-and-a-half years, a survey showed on Thursday.
By Helen Jewell. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, stoked inflation, dented growth and forced central banks back toward tightening. This unprecedented spending push could represent a long-term source of earnings support, especially for companies in the U.S. and Asia that provide much-needed memory and power. AI is also highly energy intensive. VALUATIONS IN PERSPECTIVE.
* Traders see 39% chance of a 25-bp U.S. rate hike in December. * Fed minutes show more policymakers open to a rate hike. * Trump says negotiations with Iran in final stages. By Noel John. Gold edged lower on Thursday as higher Treasury yields and a firm dollar weighed on the metal, while hopes of a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict limited losses.
For most households, the cost of money is part of the cost of living. For a variety of reasons, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded lower interest rates throughout his first and now second terms in office. But his Iran war and related energy shock have pushed annual inflation back above 4% this month, in all likelihood, and gas pump prices are more than 40% higher than a year ago.
India's private sector growth eased in May as a manufacturing slowdown driven by the Middle East war and cooling international demand offset a marginal pick-up in the service economy, a survey showed.
* JAMIE DIMON SAYS INTEREST RATES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER FROM HERE - BLOOMBERG NEWS Source text: [ID:https://tinyurl.com/5dvfxsbp] Further company coverage:
* BOJ should raise rates at 'appropriate pace', Koeda says. * Koeda calls for attention to cost of negative real rates. * Koeda sees risk oil costs may stay high for prolonged period. * Inflation risks bigger than risk of Japan suffering recession. * Remarks suggest further hawkish shift in nine-member board. By Leika Kihara.
By Kevin Buckland. The U.S. dollar hovered below a six-week peak on Thursday after pulling back on rising hopes that Washington is nearing a deal with Tehran to end the war in the Middle East. The Australian dollar declined following a surprise rise in the unemployment rate to the highest since 2021, which lessened the case for higher interest rates.
Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda said on Thursday the central bank should raise interest rates at an "appropriate pace" as underlying inflation may exceed its 2% target due to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Australian employment unexpectedly fell in April while the jobless rate jumped to the highest level since late 2021, a possible sign the labour market might be loosening enough to stave off a near-term interest rate hike.
Japan's manufacturing activity slowed slightly in May, while service sector growth ground to a halt for the first time in over a year, as surging costs linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on confidence, a business survey showed on Thursday. -- The S&P Global flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 54.5 in May, from 55.1 in April.
* Treasury yields fall while US stocks end up. * Oil prices drop sharply. * Nvidia (NVDA) shares down slightly after the bell following results. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday downgraded Mexico's credit rating to "Baa3" from a prior level of "Baa2", and changed its outlook to stable from negative.
The U.S. Federal Reserve proposed Wednesday adopting a new, more limited form of a payment account that would allow firms like fintechs to move money across the Fed's payment rails without enjoying all the backstops available to traditional banks.
* Treasury yields retraced Tuesday gains after Trump says Iran deal near. * Treasuries have sold off as Iran war, high energy levels persist. * 20-year bond auction meets with somewhat soft demand. By Matt Tracy. May 20 - Yields on U.S. Treasuries on Wednesday retraced their previous day's gains, after President Donald Trump said deal talks with Iran were in their final stage.
* Treasury yields fall while US stocks up. * Investors await Nvidia (NVDA) results after bell. * Oil prices drop sharply. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John. U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices fell on Wednesday as hopes increased that the U.S. is nearing a deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East, while major stock indexes rose ahead of closely watched results from Nvidia.
* Dollar falls as Iran deal hopes rise, Treasury yields drop. * Fed minutes show growing support for possible rate hike. * Yen in focus as it nears intervention zone. By Karen Brettell. The U.S. dollar retreated from a six-week high on Wednesday on rising hopes that the U.S. is nearing a deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve officials' concerns about inflation being stoked by the Iran war intensified last month, with a growing number open to a possible rate hike, in a sign that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will inherit an increasingly hawkish crew of central bankers.
Citigroup Inc (C): * CITIGROUP SHAREHOLDERS MEETING BEGINS. * CITIGROUP CEO JANE FRASER SAYS U.S. CONSUMER CREDIT SHOWS BROAD RESILIENCY. * CITIGROUP CEO FRASER SAYS ASIAN ECONOMIES SHOWS THE HIGHER VULNERABILITIES TO HIGH FUEL PRICES. * CITIGROUP CEO FRASER SAYS MIDDLE EAST DYNAMICS STILL PRESENT SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISK TO GLOBAL ECONOMY.
* Fed policymakers see rising inflation risks, with rate hike possible. * April meeting saw four dissents, most since 1992, over policy direction. * Economists expectations shift toward no rate cuts. * Financial markets price in rate hike as Fed's next move. By Dan Burns.
* Treasury yields fall while Nasdaq up more than 1% * Nvidia (NVDA) results after bell; Samsung workers set to strike. * Oil prices drop sharply. By Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John.
UK shares closed higher on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected April inflation reading tempered some interest-rate-hike bets, while a drop in crude oil prices and stabilizing government bond yields also offered some respite.
* US Treasury yield increase supports dollar as Fed rate hike odds rise. * Trump signals rate cuts unlikely until Iran conflict ends. * Yen nears intervention zone. By Karen Brettell. The U.S. dollar retreated from a six-week high on Wednesday on rising hopes that the U.S. is nearing a deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East.
* Trump again says the war with Iran would end "very quickly" * Investors see 48.6% chance the Fed could raise rates in December. * Minutes from the Fed's April FOMC meeting due later today. By Anjana Anil.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.
Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
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