TRADING DAY-Tech outlook is cloudy

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, June 25 (Reuters) - It was a day of modest reversals across currencies and commodities on Thursday, to varying degrees, as the dollar rally and oil slump paused for breath. Meanwhile, stocks in Europe and Asia rose, but megacap tech weakness weighed on Wall Street. In my column today, I look at the wild price swings that have marked Wall Street and other key markets in the first half of the year, and why turbulence shouldn't be mistaken for decline. There is still life in the AI-fueled equity boom.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. U.S. first-quarter GDP revised sharply higher; but consumer spending nearly stalls

2. Apple raises prices of MacBooks, iPads as memory costs skyrocket

3. Micron joins rivals pitching AI deals as cure for memory's boom-bust cycle

4. U.S. bond market expects rate hikes the Fed may never deliver

5. JPMorgan reshapes Jamie Dimon succession race with executive shuffle

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: South Korea +5%, Japan +4.5%. Europe and UK +1%. S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq -0.5%, Dow +0.1%.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors rise, five fall. Industrials +2%, comms services -1%. "SOX" chip index +3.5%, Roundhill memory stocks ETF +10%. Micron +15%, Caterpillar +5.5%, Apple and Dell -6%. Microsoft -3.5% and now -21% in June, worst month ever.

* FX: Dollar's first down day in seven. Mexican peso biggest EM gainer after cenbank holds rates.

* BONDS: U.S. yields ease slightly, 7-year auction is ok - weak indirect bid, strong direct bids.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +2%, precious metals +1%.

Today's Talking Points

* What's not to hike? Headline annual PCE inflation is officially above 4% for the first time in three years, figures on Thursday showed. With CPI also above 4%, the two benchmark headline measures of U.S. inflation are both more than double the Fed's 2% target.

This means the Fed should be hiking rates, right? Maybe. The month-on-month PCE data were a bit softer than expected and oil is down 40% from its recent peak, back to pre-Iran war levels. Traders have removed 15 bps from implied Fed tightening by year-end in recent days. More of that to come?

* If the withdrawal cap fits

Private debt markets remain extremely choppy under the surface. Regulatory filings released on Thursday show that investors in Ares Management's $23 billion flagship private credit fund sought to withdraw 14.4% of shares in Q2, up from 11.6% in Q1. Redemptions were again capped at 5%. Earlier this week, Apollo put a 5% cap on redemptions from its ADS $26 billion private credit fund after ?investors sought to withdraw 17% of shares. There has been little spillover into public markets so far, but sentiment remains bleak - WisdomTree's private credit and alt income ETF is retesting all-time lows.

* Hedge funds and Treasuries The hedge fund "basis trade" story has been out of the headlines lately, but a new Fed paper this week dissecting hedge funds' exposure to U.S. Treasuries puts it back under the spotlight. There are some big numbers in there.

Hedge funds' exposure to Treasuries is $4 trillion, they hold 8.5% of the market and repo cash borrowing to finance these positions is $3 trillion. Bond holdings and repo borrowing doubled between 2023 and 2025. The question, as always, is what systemic risk does this carry? As yet, none, it seems.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Japan Tokyo CPI inflation (June)

* U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectations (June, final)

* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks

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(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)