TD Economics Expects 'Firm Print' for Canada Inflation With Non-Energy Costs Eyed

06:40 AM EDT, 06/22/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's consumer price index reading for May is expected be a "firm print" driven by higher gasoline prices when it's released at 8:30am ET on Monday, according to a note from TD Economics.

Costs at the pump are forecast to have risen around 3% in the month, the bank wrote in a note on Friday.

"However, the key focus will be on inflation breadth and core measures," TD Economics said.

Energy costs helped put April's headline CPI measure up 2.8% year over year. Core inflation, which is the Bank of Canada's preferred measure, eased to 2.1%. TD said the key issue for the central bank will be whether inflation pressures is spreading beyond energy-related costs.

"While the upcoming inflation report will be important for assessing underlying pressures, the broader backdrop remains one of excess supply, subdued domestic demand and likely moderating energy prices," TD said.

Monday's CPI is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's stance and TD predicts policymakers will remain on the sidelines for the rest of the year.

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