Commerzbank on Overnight News

06:42 AM EDT, 06/18/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries fall after the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, with the curve flattening, partly reverse losses in Asia. E-minis only changed a little after rebounding in Asia. The euro (EUR) falls to US$1.152, the yen (JPY) is at its weakest level in nearly two years. Brent at US$78/barrel.

Fed keeps rates unchanged, removes reference to additional rate adjustments and drops easing bias in statement. Median 2026 rate dot rises to 3.75% from 3.375%, with nine of 18 participants penciling in a hike this year. Core PCE projection for this year raised to 3.3%, followed by 2.3% for 2027 and 2% for 2028. The statement says the labor market is keeping pace with workforce.

Fed: Chair Kevin Warsh says committee dropped forward guidance as it is "not well suited to this juncture." Announces five task forces (communications, balance sheet, data sources, productivity/jobs, inflation frameworks) that will begin to work within weeks and mostly conclude by year-end. Balance sheet task force to review ample-reserves regime. Sees no reason to revisit 2% target until achieved.

Trade: President Donald Trump says the USMCA trade deal "won't be sticking around," views it as possibly expiring immediately.

U.S.: Wall Street groups warn regulators that their plans to implement "Basel Endgame" will threaten U.S. Treasury market liquidity (FT).

U.S./Iran: President Trump signs the memorandum of understanding with Iran at Versailles and the deal is now in effect. Trump reiterates that Iran agreed not to produce nuclear weapons and talks on removing the enriched stockpile will begin immediately. The U.S. will only lift oil sanctions if Iran complies. If Tehran doesn't honor the agreement, the U.S. goes "back to bombing." Trump defends deal, saying that he sought to avoid "economic catastrophe" and "market collapse."

U.S./Iran: Official briefs that the deal gives the U.S. a "dial" tied to Tehran's behaviour, Iran won't charge fees for Strait of Hormuz transit within a 60-day period.

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