SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

05:57 AM EDT, 06/18/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:

-- US dollar (USD) is bid, two-year United States Treasury yield spikes to 4.21% after hawkish FOMC, three-month SOFR pricing +25bps in October. Brent -2.2% to US$77.8/barrel erases 200dma, support is US$75/US$73. The U.S. and Iran sign a 14-point memorandum of understanding, agreement aims to expand on ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Details sketchy on nuclear, lifts sanctions so Iran can sell oil, access frozen assets, US$300 billion funding.

-- Fed: hawkish hold, nine of 18 FOMC members want a rate hike in 2026, six want two hikes or more. Emphasis on price stability. Chair Warsh: "unambiguously and unanimously" committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target. PCE raised to 3.6% in 2026 (+0.9pp), 2.3% in 2027 (+0.1pp), 2.0% in 2028 (unchanged). Unemployment rate 4.3% in 2026 (-0.1pp), 4.3% in 2027 (unchanged).

-- Switzerland: The central bank (SNB) on hold at 0%, repeats increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to counter rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc (CHF). Inflation forecast 0.6% this year and in 2027, 0.7% in 2028, within the range of price stability.

-- United Kingdom April average earnings excluding bonuses unchanged at 3.4% three-month/over/year-on-year, above forecast. Private sector pay slows to 2.9% from 3.1%. May payrolls +2,000, April revised up to -53,000. Unemployment rate -0.1pp 4.9%.

-- Day ahead: Bank of England forecast to stay on hold. Norway's Norges Bank keeps rates unchanged. European Central Bank speakers Kocher, Nagel, Cipollone, Lane, Escriva. U.S. weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed business outlook. Czech central bank forecast to raise rate by 25bps 3.75%.

-- Nikkei +1.7%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.975%, S&P futures +0.8%, Gold -1.2% at US$4,305/oz.

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