TD Sees "Modest" Rise in Canada's Average Home Price in H2 2026 After May's "Healthy" Sales

11:14 AM EDT, 06/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales rose 5.5% month over month in May, said TD after Tuesday's data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Broad-based gains were observed, headlined by Nova Scotia (+20.4% month over month), Manitoba (+10.1% month over month), Ontario (+8.8%) and British Columbia (+5.8%).

Canadian average home prices posted a more muted gain than sales, rising 0.7% month over month.

Canadian home sales posted a "healthy" gain in May, as price expectations between sellers and buyers could be becoming more aligned, greasing the wheels for transactions, noted the bank. This not only leaves sales on track for a firm increase in Q2, but it adds a tailwind to the residential component of gross domestic product.

However, some of the shine comes off considering it represents only a partial bounce back after an exceedingly weak, weather-impacted Q1, stated TD.

For their part, Canadian average home prices grew faster than their benchmark counterpart, pointing to compositional forces -- for example, outperforming sales of more expensive properties -- at play. Moving forward, this dynamic could hold in markets like Vancouver, where the condo market is under pressure, pointed out the bank.

May's print is consistent with TD's view that Canadian home sales will grind higher through the second half, supported by pent-up demand and a downward drift in bond yields.

The bank also foresees a "modest" rise in Canadian average home prices in H2 2026, backed by firmer gains in markets outside of Ontario, where supply/demand balances still favor buyers.

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