Canada's Q2 GDP Revisions Are Likely to Be Modestly on The Upside, Some Support for Canadian Dollar, Says Rosenberg Research

10:56 AM EDT, 06/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian economy may have enjoyed a rare employment spurt in May -- though not even recouping the prior job losses -- but the housing market remains rather depressed, said Rosenberg Research.

Housing starts fell by 6.1% month over month in May to 261,000 annualized units and down by just more than that on a year-over-year basis.

However, the news isn't all bad, and a glow is starting to emerge as far as ending the negative two-quarter real gross domestic product print, noted Rosenberg Research. The level of starts through the first two months of the current quarter (270,000) is, so far, above the Q1 average (242,000), so Canada should be seeing the residential real estate market provide a decent contribution to Q2 real GDP growth.

The same holds true for manufacturing sales in April, up 4.2% month over month after a 3.4% uptick in March -- in real terms, the April print was 1.8% month-over-month higher and is riding a three-month winning streak.

One caveat was that manufacturing new orders, which are a leading indicator, pulled back 3.8% in April, or 2.3% inflation-adjusted, after a nice two-month recovery, stated Rosenberg.

All in, mixed data releases, but the silver lining is that Q2 GDP revisions are likely to be modestly on the upside and should act as some support for the beleaguered Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) as it hovers very near the $1.40 threshold, added Rosenberg.

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