Nothing at All Hawkish Out of The Bank of Canada, Says Rosenberg Research

10:56 AM EDT, 06/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada did the obvious and held the policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, while the main message was that there isn't likely to be any change coming over the near- to intermediate-term, said Rosenberg Research.

In Governor Tiff Macklem's opening remarks, he made it clear that "holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks," referring to downside growth risks and upside inflation risks.

The Canadian money market, at points since the late-April meeting, priced in three BoC rate hikes by year-end, and that has been pared to one, noted Rosenberg Research. "That is one too many."

Nothing at Wednesday's policy statement and press conference sounded the least bit hawkish, even as the BoC retains its optionality, stated Rosenberg.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) should remain vulnerable since it will take a lot more to knock United States traders from the view that the Federal Reserve will be hiking rates sooner rather than later, according to Rosenberg.

What stood out while listening to the press conference on Wednesday was the very different underlying tone compared with the presser following the April rate decision, added Rosenberg. Back then, there was more focus on the possible need for "consecutive increases in the policy rate."

That phrase was repeated at the opening of the press conference on Wednesday, but it rang hollow, it pointed out.

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