May US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 85,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining to 4.3%

02:28 PM EDT, 06/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 85,000 in May after a 115,000-jobs gain in April, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

The May employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday.

Layoffs intentions jumped in May after another increase in April, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the technology sector leading the gain again due to AI. The May reading was the highest for the month since May 2020 during the pandemic.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 86,000 in May after a jobs increase of 123,000 in April. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 122,000 jobs in May, led by education and health services and trade, transportation and utilities.

Initial claims were lower in the mid-May employment survey week compared with mid-April survey week, while insured claims were higher.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 29% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in May, down from 34% in April.

Job openings increased in April while hiring declined.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's May consumer confidence survey fell by 1.4 percentage points to 25.5% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 18.6%, narrowing the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in May after a 0.2% gain in April, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.4% from 3.6%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.3 hours.

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