Market Expectations Around Rate Hikes Inconsistent With Baseline Macroeconomic Fundamentals, says Rosenberg Research

09:07 AM EDT, 05/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales came in line with expectations of a 0.7% month-over-month uptick in April, following a 0.1% dip in March, noted Rosenberg Research.

This was the first monthly gain since last October, and took the level back to 35,600 units -- a three-month high, noted Rosenberg Research. But on a year-over-year basis, sales remain down 4% from April 2025, with the trend now on a seven-month losing streak, it also noted.

"We haven't seen an ongoing stretch like this since late 2022 and early 2023, during the BoC rate hiking cycle," the research said.

Rosenberg Research noted the "mild" growth in home sales is also lagging behind the mounting number of new listings in the market -- a 4.1% month-over-month surge to 78,100 units (a six-month high). This has brought the sales-to-new-listings ratio down from 47.1% in March to 45.6% in April, which was the second-lowest level since February 2009. Also, with the supply pipeline exceeding demand, home prices inched down by 0.1% month over month -- now declining for 15 straight months -- while the year-over-year pace, of 4.2% lower, has extended its negative trend to two years.

"All in, this is clearly not a sign of a robust housing market," said the research, adding: "This is one of the many reasons why the currently priced-in Bank of Canada rate path of nearly two hikes is "inconsistent" with the baseline macroeconomic fundamentals."

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