Will Trump Slam Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Like Jerome Powell? Prediction Markets Aren't Ruling It Out

President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chair, but bettors believe there's a reasonable chance he could still face public pushback from the POTUS.

Kalshi Bettors See More Than 50% Chance

Prediction market Kalshi estimates a 56% likelihood that Trump will criticize Warsh before the end of the year. The odds of Trump going after Warsh before July remained relatively low at around 20%.

The market resolution depends on Trump making a statement that explicitly “expresses disapproval, negative judgment, or unfavorable assessment” of Warsh.

A Divisive Figure?

The Senate approved Warsh’s nomination on Wednesday in a narrow 54?45 vote, reflecting deep political divisions over the appointment.

Democrats have criticized Warsh as too closely aligned with Trump after he publicly backed the president’s view that rates are too high. In Senate testimony, however, Warsh said he would act independently.

Warsh has already signaled he may pursue major changes to how the Fed operates,  including plans to retire the core personal consumption expenditures index?the inflation gauge the Fed has relied on for two decades.

Trump Vs. Powell

The rift between the President and the outgoing Chair,?Jerome Powell, who was?also nominated by Trump in his first term, has deepened in recent months, primarily over disagreements on interest rate policy. At one point, Trump even said he’d fire Powell if he didn't step aside when his term expires.

The administration also backed a criminal investigation into renovation costs at the Fed’s headquarters, while Powell said that political pressure on the Fed was “battering the institution.”

Interestingly, with inflation still elevated, traders now assign a 31.8% probability to a Fed rate hike instead by January 2027, rising to 37% by April 2027, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Powell confirmed he will step aside at the end of his term on May 15 but will remain on the Fed’s board. 

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