Factbox-What to expect in 2026: Brokerage forecasts for S&P 500, global GDP

May 12 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index to extend its rally in 2026, even as Middle East tensions disrupt global energy flows and drive inflation higher.

Strategists at major investment banks expect momentum in artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings to offset the conflict's short-term economic impact. However, they warned that persistently higher oil prices could increase recession risks.

HSBC and RBC Capital Markets raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 this month, flagging resilient earnings growth and continued strength in AI-linked sectors.

Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:

Forecasts for stocks:

Brokerage 2026 S&P 500 index target

BofA Global Research 7,100

Societe Generale 7,300

UBS Global Research 7,500

Jefferies 7,500

Canaccord Genuity 7,500

BNP Paribas 7,500

UBS Global Wealth 7,500

Management

Goldman Sachs 7,600

J.P. Morgan 7,600

Barclays 7,650

HSBC 7,650

Citigroup 7,700

Evercore ISI 7,750

Morgan Stanley 7,800

Seaport Research Partners 7,800

RBC Capital Markets 7,900

Deutsche Bank 8,000

Oppenheimer Asset 8,100

Management

Wells Fargo Investment 7,400-7,600

Institute

Real GDP Growth:

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. EURO AREA UK

Citigroup 2.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8%

Goldman Sachs 2.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9%

Morgan Stanley 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.7%

Barclays 3.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.7%

Wells Fargo 2.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6%

UBS Global Wealth 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1%

Management

Deutsche Bank 3.3% 2.5% 0.5% 1.3%

HSBC 2.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.8%

J.P.Morgan 2.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5%

BofA Global 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% 1.2%

Research

UBS Global 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6%

Research

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Tasim Zahid)