Nonfarm Payrolls Jump By 115,000 In April, Smashing 62,000 Estimate

The U.S. labor market added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, blowing past economist forecasts for 62,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The print marks a slight deceleration from the prior month’s upwardly revised 185,000 gain.

The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous reading and in line with the 4.3% consensus.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month, missing the 0.3% estimate. On an annual basis, pay climbed 3.6%, landing just below the 3.8% forecast.

Job gains were concentrated in health care (+37,000), transportation and warehousing (+30,000), and retail trade (+22,000). Federal government employment continued its slide, falling by another 9,000 ? and is now down 348,000, or 11.5%, since peaking in October 2024.

Market Reactions

The stronger-than-expected payrolls headline reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for longer. CME FedWatch is now pricing a nearly 90% probability of no rate change by year-end, while the odds of an outright hike over the next 12 months have climbed to 38.5%.

<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes">

	CUT	HOLD	HIKE
Meeting Date	3.25?3.50%	3.50?3.75%	3.75?4.00%
Jun 17, 2026	2.95%	97.05%	0.00%
Jul 29, 2026	11.50%	88.50%	0.00%
Sep 16, 2026	10.36%	89.64%	0.00%
Oct 28, 2026	1.50%	98.50%	0.00%
Dec 09, 2026	0.00%	88.39%	11.61%
Jan 27, 2027	0.00%	81.50%	18.50%
Mar 17, 2027	0.00%	67.93%	32.07%
Apr 28, 2027	0.00%	61.50%	38.50%
Jun 09, 2027	0.00%	64.96%	35.04%

<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">CME FedWatch as of May 8, 2026, 9 a.m. ET</figcaption></figure>

Stock futures rallied into the Friday open. Futures tracking the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) climbed 0.62% to 7,382.05.

Dow futures added 0.44% to 49,815, and contracts on the outperformed with a 0.82% gain to 28,798. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are on pace for a sixth straight weekly gain ? the longest winning streak since October 2024.

Chipmakers continued to lead pre-market gains among mega caps. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) surged 6.80% to $216.31, while Micron Technology Inc. (MU) climbed 3.36% to $668.36, extending the semiconductor sector’s recent rally.

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